FanPost

Time For Weiss To Be Unconventional

I am writing here as a diehard, but slightly frustrated Rockies fan, who really just wants to see my team give itself a legitimate shot at contending for the playoffs. Honestly, that would be satisfactory for this year, especially after so many years of futility in a row.

I'm not here to bash Weiss or any player, as they are obviously frustrated as well, but I do want to present something a little bit unconventional, a theory that I have that isn't really seen anywhere in baseball, but I believe I can make a convincing case for, and that is this:

Pitching some guys almost exclusively according to their home/road splits.

This will seem ridiculous to some, and I welcome any feedback. But I really believe it could be pivotal in having our staff throw better games, and consequentially allow us to win more games. Below are the top seven relievers as far as appearances in the bullpen for the Rockies this year, and my reasoning for why my theory could be very impactful will follow the numbers:

Jake McGee: Overall ERA: 5.60.

Road Stats: 1.98 ERA, .245 AVG. against, 13.2 IP, 3 ER, 8/9 saves.

Home Stats: 9.22 ERA, .328 AVG. against, 13.2 IP, 14 ER; 7/10 saves.

Chad Qualls: Overall ERA: 5.61

Road Stats: 3.14 ERA, .259 AVG. against, 14.1 IP, 5 ER

Home Stats: 8.74 ERA, .393 AVG. against, 11.1 IP, 11 ER

Jason Motte: Overall ERA: 5.03

Road Stats: 1.17 ERA, .148 AVG against, 7.2 IP, 1 ER

Home Stats: 7.50 ERA, .33. AVG against, 12 IP, 10 ER

Justin Miller: Overall ERA: 5.35

Road Stats: 2.33 ERA, .257 AVG against, 19.1 IP, 5 ER

Home Stats: 9.00 ERA, .344 AVG against, 16 IP, 16 ER

I'll pause here. If those numbers don't appall you, I do not know what will. On the road, every single one of these guys are not only capable, but borderline stellar. One would not realize this just glancing at their overall ERAs, which are admittedly atrocious, but even those pale in comparison to their home ERAs.

As unfeasible as it may seem, Weiss simply needs to bench these guys when we are playing home games. It's not a hard choice: combined they are giving up about a run an inning. Plug them in on the road, and their combined ERAs are under 2.50, an awesome number. Now is it ludicrous to think that you can simply hold out four relievers during home series? Maybe. Honestly, their inability to produce at home, in my opinion, could and possibly should mean that they simply aren't a good fit for the Rockies. But for the time being, they should at least be employed as much as possible on the road only. To this point, Weiss is either using them about equally, as is normal practice for a manager. However, truth is we do not play in a normal park, and some pitchers, no matter how good elsewhere, struggle here. Weiss needs to adapt to that.

Now, pitching at Coors Field is almost always going to result in a higher ERA. But the above four relievers seem to particularly struggle, with an average ERA 6.49 points higher at home than on the road. Below are the guys that Weiss uses a lot that seem to handle Coors pretty well, or at least compared to their road numbers, and can be employed with confidence at home:

Boone Logan: Overall ERA: 2.70

Road Stats: 1.26 ERA, .130 AVG against, 14.1 IP, 2 ER

Home Stats: 4.38 ERA, .196 AVG against, 12.1 IP, 6 ER

Carlos Estevez: Overall ERA: 4.19

Road Stats: 2.84 ERA, .164 AVG against, 12.2 IP, 4 ER

Home Stats: 4.98 ERA, .226 AVG against, 21.2 IP, 12 ER

Gonzalez Germen: Overall ERA: 5.86

Road Stats: 6.23 ERA, .294 AVG against, 13 IP, 9 ER

Home Stats: 5.64 ERA, .279 AVG against, 22.1 IP, 14 ER

Disclaimer: in Germen's case, he has been pretty bad all around. But surprisingly, his numbers are better across the board at Coors. But still, I would not say he is one of my go-to relievers unless it is eating up meaningless innings. I hope he turns into a marvelous pitcher, but he has had enough of a body of work, that with a 5.86 ERA and no drastic splits, it's time for him to get sent down or at least not pitch in meaningful situations. But the point is that he fares better at Coors than his overall average. The guys you should run out there consistently are Estevez, Logan, and Ottavino. His body of work is small, but seeing as he hasn't given up a run in the last two years he has pitched, I think it is fair to say his stuff will work either home or away. But time will tell with more certainty. Estevez and Logan both understandingly see their ERAs jump a couple of points- but it is only a couple, 2.13 on average to be exact. This is likely just the park's effects, and nowhere near the 6.49 average hike of the other main relievers.

I would like to see Logan, Ottavino, and Estevez as the top three options at home, as they are arguably our top three relievers currently, but most definitely the three guys that can handle Coors the best. In fact it's not even that arguable, as the statistics speak for themselves. But by employing more of McGee, Motte, Qualls and Miller (when healthy) as the primaries on the road, and holding them out as much as possible at home, we could see a real reduction in that unsightly bullpen ERA, which at 4.98 ranks 29th in the majors. Does this go against conventional wisdom? Sure. But it might be just what is needed to help the Rockies get the wins that they need.

The Rockies are struggling, and blowing leads late in games by the bullpen has caused us numerous losses and demoralizes a fan base. Could Weiss taking this unconventional approach really make a difference? I believe so.

Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).

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