Does anybody know any of the actual formulas used to calculate WAR? I know there are different types of WAR, like bWAR (Baseball Reference), fWAR (FanGraphs), and then some independent data analytics outfits that do their own calculations, but does anybody have an actual formula for any one of them?
I'm able to get general ideas of how the formulas are modeled, but I would really like to do some more research into the real essence of WAR. I want to be able to look at a player's WAR, then look at their stats and understand why it's so much higher/lower than I would have thought.
I do realize that it takes into account numerous different things like offense, defense, park factors, splits, etc., but sometimes I have a hard time understanding why two players with similar stats can have such drastically different WAR values.
For instance, I was just looking at Dante Bichette's career statistics on Baseball-Reference.com, and I noticed that his WAR for his near-MVP season in 1995 was 1.1! Yes 1.1!! That's so incredibly low I almost can't believe it. I know that Dante was a less-than-stellar defensive outfielder, but was he really THAT bad??? I know that park factors also played a lot into why his drop was so low, but I mean 1.1 just seems too low. Dante came in second in the NL MVP votes for that year, and if you look at the WAR differential for the votes above and below him it's outstanding. Barry Larkin beat Bichette by 30 vote points with a WAR of 5.9 (4.8 wins greater than), and Greg Maddux who came in third had 9.6 WAR (8.5 wins greater than).
So basically, what I take from that data is this: Dante Bichette was the best hitting, worst MLB player of all time!
I just can't imagine it's all because of playing at Coors, because Larry Walker still posted a 4.7 WAR that season.
If anybody has access to the actual formulas used to calculate any type of WAR, I would appreciate some information. I don't care if it's really complex mathematics, as I actually have my Bachelor's in Applied Mathematics, so I'll be able to understand the math.
If no one does have access to any of these formulas, please at least enlighten me as to how Dante Bichette could be such a good hitter, but register as such a poor overall baseball player on account of WAR.
According to Baseball-Reference, Nolan Arenado already has more WAR this season than Bichette accumulated throughout his entire MLB career. Chew on that!