Noted Rockies fanboy Mike Petriello has picked up on a fascinating trend in the Rockies bullpen, with the signing of Greg Holland being the latest in a long line of fastball/slider arms. Come for the Rockies analysis, stay for the Statcast.
Dave Cameron wrote this in response to the original write-up of the deal on FanGraphs (Greg Holland’s Curious Choice). It’s an interesting theory that’s worth reading about the particulars, but the case is that Holland is smart enough to know that nobody evaluates relievers based on ERA, so building his value really can happen anywhere.
The rest of the argument, though, is a bit suspect to me for a few reasons. Most notably, the projections are low on the Rockies-as-Contenders theory but they also project David Dahl for less than 1.0 WAR in 600 PA.
You don’t have to fully buy in to Dahl’s performance last year to think he’ll produce more than that. The reasons the Rockies’ contention window seems to be opening is because they have young players who, according to the projections, are relative unknowns. Just keep that in mind when ZiPS, PECOTA, and Steamer say the Rockies are destined for another fourth place NL West finish.
Apparently it’s prospect list season. Fan Rag published the Rockies list yesterday and there are two major surprises in the top 10.
It’s an inspired, if not totally unique, list of suggestions. Doubtful any of them come through at this point, but hey, a fan can dream, right?