FanPost

2017; Underestimating the Colorado Rockies - FPF

While we would love to think that our beloved Rockies will leave all their baggage from past years behind and turn over a new leaf, the likelihood of that is abyssal (even for this die-hard Rockies fan). We have some characteristics that we don't like to admit, but there is evidence for them. Let's look at last year:

Based on FiveThirtyEight's stats of win probability, we won 50% of our games (5-5) that we had at most a 35% chance at winning. That's awesome! We are good at being the underdog. When we weren't favored to win, with a 36% to 40% win probability, we won 41% (7-10) of those games, which is better than what the favor was. Here's where it gets ugly. When it's a reasonable close match, with the odds being between 41-59% which included a large majority of our games, we only won 46.3% (56-65) of those games. This should be a lot closer to 50% which would turn into ~5 more wins. In games where we were favored with odds in the range of 60%-64%, we won 64% (7-4) of our games. In the 1 game, we were highly favored with the odds of 65%+, we lost it.

So what does this mean for this year? Nothing good. I would like to think that we have a much better starting rotation and bullpen this year, making us much more competitive. But the Rockies excelled at being the underdog. We will no longer be the underdog and will have a lot more matches in the 41-59% range. So the wins that we used to get from being the underdog - gone. We'll gain those back for the additional games in the middle range with leaves us with the same sad story:

This year looks to be the same as last year. 75 Wins.

Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).