The new, improved Colorado Rockies have turned over a new leaf! We have a competitive starting rotation and bullpen to be proud of. You can't ignore the improvements that have happened at the plate. Defense is still stellar and the highlight of the Colorado Rockies. What does this mean? This year won't be like last year.
Based on FiveThirtyEight's stats of win probability, we won 50% of our games (5-5) that we had at most a 35% chance at winning. That's awesome! We are good at being the underdog. When we weren't favored to win, with a 36% to 40% win probability, we won 41% (7-10) of those games, which is better than what the favor was. Here's where it gets ugly. When it's a reasonable close match, with the odds being between 41-59% which included a large majority of our games, we only won 46.3% (56-65) of those games. This should be a lot closer to 50% which would turn into ~5 more wins. In games where we were favored with odds in the range of 60%-64%, we won 64% (7-4) of our games. In the 1 game, we were highly favored with the odds of 65%+, we lost it.
As for this year, there is no way we only win 46% of the close games. Based on what's happened so far, we're winning those! We will reverse that and win 54% of the close games. That's and 8% improvement which equates to 10 more wins. Plus, we can't forget that having a better club relevant to last year, we will have more games that we're favored to win, that we actually tend to win. Assuming we have 10 more games in that category this year, that gives us 3 addition wins above last year's average. So what does that mean for us this year?
Playoffs Baby! 88 wins, good enough for a wild card spot!