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FanPost Friday Recap: Best/worst case scenarios for the 2017 Rockies

Reacting to small samples is fun

Welcome back to FanPost Friday! Last Friday we asked you, our dear at-least-okay-looking readers, to overreact to the first week or so of the season. The prompt was “What is the best (or worst) case scenario for the 2017 Colorado Rockies?”

We had several responses this week, some of them quite creative. I think my favorite, from a pure creativity standpoint, came from aFlyOnTheRocks, who decided to write a FanPost each for the best case and worst case scenarios. The fun is all in the presentation so I don’t want to spoil that. Instead I’ll just quote the last line from each piece:

Overestimating the Colorado Rockies: “Playoffs Baby! 88 wins, good enough for a wild card spot!”

Underestimating the Colorado Rockies: “This year looks to be the same as last year. 75 Wins.”

Arimaris got downright Dickensian with this FPF prompt, laying out a very clear picture of what it will look like for the Rockies to achieve the best possible version of themselves, as well as what is likely to drag the team down to the cellar. Arimaris used parallel structure to paint the picture for 2017, considering best and worst case scenarios for the injuries, the lineup, the rotation, the bullpen, and manager Bud Black. Taken together:

I think it is likely we see the middle ground. We likely have our depth tested, but we see effectiveness and health from some players while other struggle. I am hopeful and honestly optimistic about the likely outcomes. I think we have a situation where the Rockies have depth and can work through the inevitable injuries that come from the season grind.

Our last FanPost Friday response (at least among the ones that were tagged FPF), came from jefe_13. Here we get the conclusion first (“We're contenders!!!”), at which point jefe_13 proceeds to build the case that this team is different, and the hope and optimism is warranted. “I'm going to let you in on a little secret of how to be a playoff contender. All you gotta do is win 2 outta 3, two-thirds of the time, and do no worse than 1 outta 3 in the other third.” The match checks out: That would produce a 90-72 team, which is a pretty reliable benchmark for making the playoffs in the two wild card era.

The whole post is phenomenal and, like the other entries this week, is worth your time. I do want to respond to one claim from jefe_13:

“This year the Rockies aren't playing under the dreaded burden of expectations. Really, the only expectation that might exist for this team outside of the thin, mile-high air of Colorado would be for Nolan Arenado to win another gold glove.”

“Expectation” is a difficult thing to pin down. Sure, those of us who have been following the Rockies tend to be optimistic, especially this year, about the team’s chances. But I have seen at least a half dozen articles already this year from pundits picking the Rockies to be the surprise/dark horse/out-of-nowhere contender this season. That makes me nervous, because it’s a way of raising expectations without actually raising expectations. But, then again, perhaps I should have written my own FanPost on this topic.

Thanks again to everyone who participated in this week’s FanPost Friday. Expect to see some posts up on the front page sometime this weekend, because they really do deserve to be read in their own right.

Make sure you take some time to respond to this week’s prompt: why should someone be a Rockies fan? Be sure to tag your posts with “FPF” in the title so we can organize them all for next week’s recap.