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Rockies have pretty good playoff odds after pretty good start to 2018 season

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Playoff odds for every NL team

Believe it or not, the 2018 regular season is about one-fourth over. In that time the Rockies have been frustrating, successful, underachieving, and overachieving, sometimes all at the same time. We’ll figure out the whole narrative of the 2018 season in the coming months. But for now, let’s take a look at what the leading projection systems have to say about the Rockies so far and their chances of making the postseason.

At the one-fourth mark of the season, the projection systems think the Rockies have about a one in four chance of making the postseason.mBaseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, and FiveThirtyEight publish their playoff odds daily. Taken together, the Rockies chances can be classified as “pretty good.” They’re in the thick of things, but they aren’t out in front, and they may have a smaller margin of error than their competitors.

The systems are all quite bullish on the Diamondbacks. The Dodgers have gotten off to slow starts in recent years, and every time it seemed like their playoff odds were consistently high, despite their record. They usually followed that up by doing something stupid like winning 40 out of 50 games. Now, however, the D-backs’ odds are higher than the Dodgers all around. The NL West is one tough division.

Not only that, but the entire National League field is crowded at the moment. A lot of teams are surprising early and holding on to higher than expected odds. We’ll see how the crowd thins out as the season progresses.

Playoff odds %

Team Baseball Prospectus FanGraphs FiveThirtyEight
Team Baseball Prospectus FanGraphs FiveThirtyEight
Braves 34 22 21
Brewers 37 24 38
Cardinals 53 69 52
Cubs 71 90 75
Diamondbacks 85 53 73
Dodgers 31 46 27
Giants 13 11 16
Mets 25 25 5
Nationals 71 92 58
Phillies 43 17 15
Pirates 26 22 28
Rockies 22 29 25