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The Colorado Rockies are slipping out of the playoff picture

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A mid-season update to National League playoff odds

As we approach the halfway point of the 2018 season, we’ve seen a Colorado Rockies team that has struggled of late and is currently hovering a few games below .500. Since our last playoff update, the Rockies have gone just 16-21 and fallen to 412 games out of a playoff spot. Let’s take a look at what this means for their projected playoff odds by some of the top projection systems out there.

Unfortunately, the playoff picture for the Rockies does not look very encouraging, even with evidence of some positive trends. FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, and FiveThirt Eight all project the Rockies have playoff odds at 5% or lower and all predict they will finish the season below .500.

Not only that, but context is against the Rockies right now. On top of the Rockies not having great projections from here on out, the strong seasons from several other National League teams are making things more difficult. All three of the aforementioned projection systems forecast seven different NL teams finishing 85 wins or more, meaning the Rockies will need some other teams to falter in addition to their needing to play extremely well for the rest of the year.

Playoff Odds %

Team FanGraphs Baseball Prospectus Five Thirty Eight
Team FanGraphs Baseball Prospectus Five Thirty Eight
Braves 45 55 59
Brewers 56 72 72
Cardinals 41 27 32
Cubs 87 76 78
Diamondbacks 54 74 69
Dodgers 88 75 75
Giants 12 17 17
Nationals 86 54 51
Phillies 19 45 39
Pirates 4 3 4
Rockies 5 2 4

A year ago today, there were only five teams in the National League projected to finish above .500, meaning there was more of an opening for a team around the .500 mark. That doesn’t appear to be the case in 2018. They’ll need a lot of things to go their way to get back into the playoff picture. Contrary to the sports cliché, the Rockies don’t control their own destiny.