In mid-August there were wistful dreams of a potential 8-way tie for the five playoff spots in the National League. Since that time the playoff picture has gotten a little less complicated, but no less competitive. While the Phillies’ and Diamondbacks’ playoff hopes are on their last legs, the races for the NL Central, NL West, NL Wild Card and NL home field advantage are still very tight.
2018 National League Playoff Odds
| Team | Record | GB | Run Differential | BP Playoff Odds | FanGraphs Odds | Five Thirty-Eight Odds | ROS Opponent W% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | GB | Run Differential | BP Playoff Odds | FanGraphs Odds | Five Thirty-Eight Odds | ROS Opponent W% |
| Cubs* | 85-61 | -- | +108 | 99.8% | 99.8% | >99% | .479 |
| Brewers+ | 84-63 | 1.5 | +47 | 98.7% | 97.9% | 98% | .472 |
| Braves* | 82-64 | 3.0 | +103 | 99.3% | 97.0% | 98% | .514 |
| Rockies* | 81-65 | 4.0 | +5 | 71.3% | 68.9% | 70% | .528 |
| Cardinals | 81-66 | 4.5 | +80 | 58.0% | 54.2% | 65% | .528 |
| Dodgers | 80-67 | 5.5 | +135 | 66.5% | 74.9% | 62% | .492 |
| Diamondbacks | 77-70 | 8.5 | +65 | 4.9% | 3.2% | 4% | .552 |
| Philliies | 74-71 | 10.5 | -20 | 1.0% | 2.9% | 1% | .483 |
The Brewers have closed in on the Cubs for the NL Central and home field advantage lead, but still sit a game and a half back. Both teams are pretty much assured of playing games into October, as are the Braves, who have benefited from the Phillies falling out of the race. These three teams have 97% playoff odds or higher by all three major projection systems.
The aforementioned Phillies have been scuffling. They are 3-9 over the last two weeks and have seen their playoff odds drop from around 30% down to less than 3%. The Diamondbacks, fresh off a series loss in Denver, have gone from leading the division on August 30 to less than 5% playoff odds.
Which leaves three teams battling for two spots: the Rockies, the Dodgers, and the Cardinals. The three are separated by a mere 1 1⁄2 games with just over two weeks to play and have playoff odds hovering between 55% and 75%. All due respect for the chase for the NL Central crown, this is where the action is.
Fortunately the Rockies find themselves in the enviable position of leading the NL West and have a half-game advantage over the Cardinals, who own the second Wild Card spot. The Dodgers and Cardinals played the first of a four-game set in St Louis on Thursday (Dodgers won 9-7) and will continue to beat up on one another for that Wild Card spot.
National League Remaining Schedules
| Team | Sep 14-16 | Sep 17-20 | Sep 21-23 | Sep 24-27 | Sep 28-30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Sep 14-16 | Sep 17-20 | Sep 21-23 | Sep 24-27 | Sep 28-30 |
| Rockies | 3 @ SF | 3 @ LAD | 3 @ ARI | 4 v PHI | 3 v WAS |
| Dodgers | 4 @ STL | 3 v COL | 3 v SD | 3 @ ARI | 3 @ SF |
| Cardinals | 4 v LAD | 3 @ ATL | 3 v SF | 3 v MIL | 3 @ CHC |
| Braves | 3 v WAS | 3 v STL | 4 v PHI | 3 @ NYM | 3 @ PHI |
| Brewers | 3 v PIT | 3 v CIN | 3 @ PIT | 3 @ STL | 3 v DET |
| Cubs | 3 v CIN | 3 @ ARI | 3 @ CWS | 4 v PIT | 3 v STL |
| Dbacks | 3 @ HOU | 3 v CHC | 3 v COL | 3 v LAD | 3 @ SD |
Everyone has 15 or 16 games left and a lot of those games are against either contenders or teams currently on the brink of non-contention. The head-to-head matchups will likely go a long way to deciding the fate of the National League playoff picture.
This is going to be fun.