There’s a distinction between a “projection” and a “prediction.” When we talk about a team’s projected record, it typically means a system like ZiPS or PECOTA simulated the season several thousand times and spit out a median forecast based an all the various results. A prediction is an informed person or group of people expressing what they think will happen. And yet, they both usually end up around the same place. That’s partly due to the fact that predictions tend to be at least partially informed by projections, and also partly because both use the same information. It’s just that one does it in a supercomputer-y kind of way.
With that unasked question settled, let’s take a look at what a combined six projection and prediction (prodiction? prejection?) records are for the 2019 Colorado Rockies. Unsurprisingly, they don’t deviate all that much from one another. It may surprise some, however, that they picture isn’t all that rosy.
2019 Outlook
| Source | Record |
|---|---|
| Source | Record |
| FanGraphs | 81-81 |
| CBS Sports | 81-81 |
| Sporting News | 82-80 |
| Baseball Prospectus | 85-77 |
| Bleacher Report | 86-76 |
| USA Today | 87-75 |
On the one hand, the positive news here is that I don’t recall any time in the past when the Rockies’ worst forecasted record was an even .500. On the other hand, the most optimistic record here is also the one that has four non-division winning teams ahead of the Rockies. USA Today’s predictions masquerading as projections see the Rockies finishing well behind the 94 win Dodgers, and also behind the Nationals, Braves, Phillies, Cubs, Cardinals, and Brewers.
But, there’s a but. USA Today’s panel of predictors think that those six non-Dodger teams will finish with between 88 and 89 wins — one or two games ahead of where the Rockies are supposed to land. To me, that confirms what I already believe: The National League has a lot of good teams and is going to be a dogfight this year
In all, the six sources above result in a median win total of 83.5 wins for the Rockies. That’s 71⁄2 fewer wins than the club had in 2018. That feels a little low to me, but not “get out of here with that nonsense” low. It’s about where I’d guess the Rockies end up if a few more things go wrong than go right.
It also creates a nice number for an over/under poll. So, do you see the 2019 Rockies ending up with over or under the median 83.5 wins?