Rockies fan confidence is high, but their playoff odds are low

The Rockies have lost more games than they’ve won since last Friday, starting their division home stand 2-3 with a postponement. There’s been some things to like in that time. Or, for the purposes of This Week in Purple, let’s look at what’s been good and bad.

What was good

The offense has been mashing. Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon both have wRC+’s over 200 in those five games, which is welcome but not entirely surprising. But Chris Iannetta and Ian Desmond also have adjusted batting lines over 200 in those games, which is equally welcome but unexpected. In fact, since I wrote an Ian Desmond haiku decrying his low walk rate, he’s lifted it about six percentage points, from about 3 to 9%.

What was bad

The starting pitching has been terrible this week. In the five games since last Friday, Kyle Freeland has started twice, while German Márquez, Tyler Anderson, and Antonio Senzatela each started once. They combined to give up 31 runs and 11 home runs 25²⁄₃ innings pitched.

Yikes.

Jon Gray was supposed to start on Wednesday, but that game got postponed due to the weather, and Tyler Anderson has been optioned to Triple-A. The Rockies rotation this coming week will have a different look than last week. Let’s hope the results are different as well, because seeing what was supposed to be the Rockies’ greatest strength struggle so much has been tough to watch.

What was good

Rockies fan confidence is still high though. In our most latest FanPulse poll, which was sent out on Monday this week, so before some of the poor pitching performances, 83% of respondents said yes when asked if they are confident in the overall direction of the team. That mark isn’t as high as the 100% at the start of the season, but it’s sure better than the low of 60% when the Rockies were struggling. It should be noted that the sample sizes are very likely different across this time, with more people signing up as time went on. Still, this is a nice snapshot of the fanbase’s mood. (This is the part where I encourage you all to do like I have done and sign up to receive the weekly FanPulse survey.)

What was bad

Well, the bad part comes from a different chart with a line much lower than the one seen above. It’s the Rockies playoff odds, as projected by Baseball Prospectus:

It’s still a bit early to put too much stock in playoff odds, but it’s something we do keep track of on a monthly basis. Here, the Rockies postseason chances stand in pretty stark contrast to fan confidence. They can be loosely compared, although overall confidence is a different question than playoff odds. According to BP, the Rockies are one of the biggest playoff odds fallers since the season began, as they started around 40% but now are just under 10%. There’s a ways to go for the playoff odds to catch up to fan confidence.

★ ★ ★

For me, the bad has been not knowing whether my computer is moving so slow because of my new internet service, because my computer is old, or because I have approximately 97 tabs open on two different browser windows. That’s not fun.

Fortunately, the good doesn’t involve my computer at all. I’m going to see Hamilton tomorrow with good friends, and I could not be more excited about it. Watch this space for Rockies/Hamilton fusion content.

What was good for you this week?