About six weeks ago we took a peek at the National League playoff picture. The three major projection systems couldn’t agree on much but they knew that the Dodgers were going to the playoffs and the Marlins weren’t. Six weeks later, that’s about the only thing that hasn’t changed.
Well, that, and the Rockies are going to have a tough time making it back in.
2019 NL Playoff Odds, Monday, June 17
| Team | Record | GB | Run Diff | BP Playoff Odds | FanGraphs Odds | Five Thirty-Eight Odds | ROS Opponent W% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | GB | Run Diff | BP Playoff Odds | FanGraphs Odds | Five Thirty-Eight Odds | ROS Opponent W% |
| Dodgers | 48-24 | -- | 111 | 99.9% | 99.9% | >99% | .490 |
| Braves | 42-30 | 6.0 | 39 | 79.7% | 84.3% | 74% | .497 |
| Brewers | 40-31 | 7.5 | 12 | 68.0% | 59.8% | 67% | .504 |
| Cubs | 39-32 | 8.5 | 61 | 56.4% | 80.9% | 62% | .496 |
| Phillies | 39-32 | 8.5 | 6 | 45.6% | 39.7% | 51% | .500 |
| D-Backs | 38-35 | 10.5 | 58 | 33.8% | 21.3% | 39% | .498 |
| Rockies | 37-34 | 10.5 | 12 | 14.8% | 17.2% | 22% | .516 |
| Cardinals | 36-34 | 11 | 12 | 45.8% | 33.1% | 35% | .500 |
| Padres | 35-37 | 13.0 | -38 | 7.6% | 7.0% | 11% | .509 |
| Mets | 34-37 | 13.5 | -19 | 23.8% | 15.8% | 17% | .499 |
| Nationals | 33-38 | 14.5 | 1 | 18.4% | 35.3% | 22% | .489 |
| Reds | 31-38 | 15.5 | 38 | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5% | .510 |
| Pirates | 32-39 | 15.5 | -77 | 2.4% | 1.5% | 3% | .510 |
| Giants | 30-39 | 16.5 | -82 | 0.2% | 0.2% | <1% | .514 |
| Marlins | 25-44 | 21.5 | -76 | 0.0% | 0.0% | <1% | .512 |
As has been the case for the past few years, the National League remains competitive. This year, however, it doesn’t look to be too competitive at the top as the pre-season rumors of the Dodgers’ early demise appear to have been greatly exaggerated. Since our last update, Los Angeles has gone a National League best 33-13. That hasn’t changed their outlook too much, of course.
By far the biggest movers have been the Braves. Not only have they gone 30-17 since our last update, but their division mates the Nationals (22-25), Mets (21-25), and Marlins (17-26, say a prayer for the Marlins fan) have been below .500. Their odds have gone up from 35% to 46%, depending on the system. Meanwhile, the Mets (30-33%) and Nationals (20-37%) have both dropped considerably. The Brewers and Cubs have also seen some big gains.
As for the Rockies? They have mostly stayed the same (though one wonders where they would be had Wade Davis been able to get a couple more outs this weekend, but I digress). In fact, despite going 25-20 since April 26, they’ve actually lost 8% off their odds according to Baseball Prospectus. Each system has them with the ninth best playoff odds at this point, behind the Nationals (33-38), Cardinals (36-34), and Diamondbacks (38-35).
It’s a pretty bleak picture but, if you’re looking for hope, look at last Father’s Day. On June 18, 2018, FanGraphs gave the best odds to the Cubs (84.4%), Braves (77.3%), Brewers (69.7%), Diamondbacks (64.7%), and Nationals (58.7%). The Dodgers were close behind (57.1%), and the 34-38 Rockies were nowhere to be found (2.6%). Baseball Prospectus’ odds were similar, with the Rockies at a 2.3% chance to make the playoffs.
So it doesn’t look great for the Rockies, but we are still a few weeks away from the season’s halfway point. As much as has changed over the last 50 games, even more can change over the next 90. The Rockies are far from out of it, but considering they have the hardest remaining schedule among NL teams (including 16 games against the Dodgers still to come), it won’t be easy.