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Nolan Arenado either will be traded... or he won’t be

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Rockies news and links for Friday, January 3, 2020

Morosi: 50/50 Chance Of Nolan Arenado Trade | MLB Trade Rumors
There’s a fun theory in probability that says everything has a 50/50 outcome: Either the thing happens, or it doesn’t.

Let’s be honest: We’re all just really tired of the Nolan Arenado trade rumors at this point. We’ve listened to the baseball media speculate, but we have no idea if any of these trade talks have actually progressed or if they’re just talk because what else are we going to talk about during the offseason?

At this point, I think we’re all in the 50/50 camp: Either Nolan will be traded, or he won’t. One of those two outcomes is inevitable, right?

What would a trade for Nolan Arenado look like? | Call to the Pen
This is a fascinating look at the complexities of a Nolan Arenado trade. Among the issues:

  • Opt-out option: Would the team be getting two years of Nolan or seven years of Nolan? That’s a huge difference when deciding how much talent to give up in exchange.
  • Production: Obviously, there’s no guarantee Nolan will continue being Nolan for the next seven years. Would a team want to take a chance on paying elite-level money for a player they have no guarantee will still be elite in six years? (Editorial: This is basically the case with any long-term contract, making this a less-than-compelling argument.)
  • Alternatives: Josh Donaldson still hasn’t signed, and Kris Bryant is rumored to be available. These could be cheaper and shorter-term options. (Editorial: Also not as good options.)
  • No-trade clause: Nolan can say no to any potential deal anyway, so teams may think twice about spending the time negotiating a deal that may not even happen. (Looking at you, Cardinals.)

Based on some in-depth analysis and number-crunching, this article suggests the most fair deal would be a straight-up trade for Ian Anderson, a AAA pitcher in the Atlanta system.

Pass.

Here’s what Rockies reportedly want in Nolan Arenado trade and what Mets could offer | SNY MetsBlog
Interesting tidbits: The Rockies are looking for a controllable first baseman or center fielder. So at least they realize they have problems in those areas. I mean, pitching would be really great too, but...

If Nolan is traded, I’m all for a trade to the Mets, provided the Rockies get Jeff McNeil out of the deal. Allow me to give you two very good reasons for this:

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Mac and @misswillowmcneil are best buddies!!

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Willow and Mac.....thunder buddies for life... ❤️

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What free-agent catchers could the Rockies still sign to back up Tony Wolters? | Denver Post ($)
In case you were sick of Nolan Arenado trade rumors, we could also talk about catchers the Rockies don’t have.

There are still a few free agents available. Like what about Jonathan Lucroy? Or Matt Wieters? I’m sure they would be much more productive than Chris Iannetta was last year.

Or here’s a great idea: What about Drew Butera?