FanPost

Cardinals-Rockies Blockbuster

Here's a trade idea I keep going through in my mind. It took me a while to make the value work, and also the short term cash work. The goal for the Cardinals is to maximize their window over the next three seasons (2021-2023) when Jack Flaherty is still under team control, and cheap, and before Paul Goldschmidt's contract expires (after 2024) and/or he declines too much to be a major contributor. The Cardinals offense has been limited in recent years and it is in need of a boost. The obvious spots to upgrade are (and have been) third base and in the OF (though signing J.T. Realmuto would be quite the boost as well). Furthermore, their defense has made their pitching look a lot better than it really is outside of Flaherty, and they could definitely use another high end starter to match up with other teams in the post season.

I used the trade values from baseballtradevalues.com (BTV) as my rough guide lines.

I don't think German Marquez has 98M (BTV) in trade value. I think he'd get $100M on a four year deal (he's currently signed for three years with a fourth year option for $50M in total), at the absolute max maybe $120M. That puts his surplus value in the $50-70M range. Arenado's contract I agree is probably $40M under water. So we're looking at a combined $10-30M in surplus value for the pair. The Rockies might want to buy more prospect value from the Cardinals though. In 2021 Arenado and Marquez will make $43.5M combined.

Let's assume the Cardinals want to fill most of their holes using the $12.5M they gained from declining Wong's option. Might be a stretch, but that takes us down to $31M that we need to shed in the trade ($43.5M - $12.5M).

Carpenter makes $18.5M in 2021 (plus a $2M buyout). Carlos makes $11.7M plus two $500k buyouts. That's right in the $31M range ($33.2M). So what do would the Cardinals need to add to the package to get the value of Carpenter and Carlos' bad deals to equal that of Arenado and Marquez ($10-30M in surplus value)?

BTV has Carpenter and Martinez as having -$20M in trade value combined, I think that's close, it might be more negative. That puts the gap at $30-50M in total (-$20M to + $10-30M). Gorman (+35M BTV) and Liberatore (+30M BTV) get you close individually and well over the high end of that total combined. At +40-45 (using both Gorman and Liberatore) you're $15-35M or so above the value of the Rockies package. Maybe that allows the Cardinals to buy down some of Arenado's contract in the later years (taking it from $35M down to $28-30M). They could also include piece like Thomas (+5 BTV) or Knizner (+5 BTV) if they wanted even more salary relief, perhaps in 2021 to give them room to re-sign Yadier Molina and/or Adam Wainwright.

The Rockies gain two prospects generally rated in the 40-50 range of the top 100 lists, and shed $43M in salary (though only $12M net) in 2021, but then $45-50M in 2022-2024. Also if by some miracle Carlos Martinez regains his form (maybe COVID caused the drop in velocity in 2020) they can flip him in a trade. They could also get a young CF or C that they need.

The Cardinals get the 3B and middle of the order bat they desperately need, as well as a SP in Marquez to pair with Flaherty to make a formidable playoff rotation. They maximize the next 3-4 years when they have Flaherty under control (unless/until they extend him) and Goldschmidt signed (and DeJong too). Yes, they traded away their top two prospects, but they get MLB ready contributors at those same positions and buy time for the farm to produce long term solutions.

What do you think? For the Cardinals payroll goes back up to where it would have been with Wong in 2021. I think it works in 2022, but they don't have a ton of room, but they also don't have many holes to fill. For the Rockies they shed a decent amount of payroll in 2021, but a ton long term, which will not be easy in this market. They get two prospects in the 40-50 range for trading away the face of their franchise and their best pitcher, as well as some smaller pieces. It would be really hard to sell fans on trading Nolan away for a package of no name prospects and salary relief. Packaging a positive asset like Marquez with him allows you to move more salary and get an attractive return to sell to the fanbase. It also gives the Cardinals two players that are contributing to their playoff run for a combined $45M or so instead of one player (who is coming off a shoulder injury) making $35M, so it spreads their risk around.

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