K rate down, walk rate up: SimRockies rate stats are trending nicely

The last few seasons in Major League Baseball (MLB) have seen the rate of “three true outcomes” increase. Three true outcomes refer to plate appearance outcomes that do not involve fielding: strikeouts (K), base on balls (BB), and home runs (HR). Rockies hitters have historically not excelled in the hitting rate categories associated with three true outcomes. They finished in the bottom half of MLB in K rate, BB rate, and HR rate over the last three seasons with the exception of 2018 when they achieved a HR rate of 3.4%, good for eighth in all of baseball that season. These rate stats took a dive in the wrong direction in 2019 when the Rockies saw significant downward trends in each category. Although their HR rate increased, home runs trended upwards for all teams due to a “juiced” ball and the Rockies’ rank dropped from 8th to 16th.

Sim Rockies improving on 2019 rates

Improving in the three true outcomes will be very important if the Rockies hope to put more runs on the board in 2020. Although a small sample, the Sim Rockies are giving an indication that they are capable of not only reversing the trend from 2019, but also making three true outcomes a centerpiece of their offense. A look at the table below shows over a 2% decrease in K rate and a near 3% increase in BB rate in the small sample of early season action in the simulation. The HR rate is down, but as noted in last week’s stat post, some Sim Rockies are slumping out of the gate.

Breakout Potential

David Dahl and Ryan McMahon are two hitters the Rockies hope will breakout this season. Both are at a stage in their careers where there is potential for improvement in K rate and BB rate over previous seasons and their established career baseline. Looking at Dahl’s early simulated season stats, while his power hasn’t shown up yet, he is showing an excellent K rate with a drop of 4.5% from 2019 and an almost as impressive gain in BB rate of 3.5%. It would be great to see him maintain these numbers throughout the season.

McMahon might be a more interesting case because he profiles as an extreme three true outcomes player. Throughout his career, 44% of plate appearances have resulted in either a strikeout, walk, or home run. His simulated season has him cutting down on strikeouts and also hitting for more power with a HR rate at 6.6%. His BB rate has dipped down, but it’s unlikely it will veer too far away from his career rate of 10.3%.

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The Sim Rockies are at it again this week, taking on the Padres and the Cardinals. We’ll have another stats update for you next week. In the meantime, watch all of the Rockies early sim action on Ben Kouchnerkavich’s YouTube channel, and be sure to subscribe for alerts to future action.