Austin Gomber has shown a wild pitch mix in his last three starts

The last three outings from Austin Gomber have been a struggle.

Gomber last pitched on Wednesday at Wrigley Field, allowing five earned runs to the Cubs and finishing one out shy of five innings. He took on the struggling D-Backs one start earlier, allowing three earned and calling it a day after the fifth. Before that, he allowed five earned to the electric Giants and only pitched four frames.

The lefty will toe the rubber in Texas this evening for his 23rd start of the year, but there is no telling what kind of arsenal he will use tonight after a heavy change in pitch selection:

Gomber’s two most-used pitches — fastball and slider — have spiked and plummeted this month. His pitch percentages may suggest he’s lost his identity on the mound, but the ball flight itself doesn’t seem to have changed all that much.

• His spin rates on all four pitches were near identical to his season averages in his last start.
• His velocity on all four was relatively stable as well (aside from a few sliders where he may have let it eat).
• Horizontal and vertical break has remained relatively consistent across the board.

Gomber’s strikeout percentage did take a hit when he faced the Giants and Diamondbacks, but it quickly jumped up again after he punched out eight Cubs on Wednesday. Based on these figures, there aren’t any glaring metrics that suggest he’s lost touch with any one pitch.

We’ll instead have to look at the collective picture:

His walk percentage and WHIP on August 13 and 20 suggests a lack of command, and this could be the primary culprit for his recent struggles.

There can be a ton of noise when evaluating these kinds of stats on a game-by-game basis, but the general picture is suggesting Gomber hasn’t consistently found his stride since returning from the injured list on July 21.

In his last three starts, Gomber’s BABIP and FIP have exceeded his season average. The FIP increase shows that opponents have got the best of him when it comes to the three true outcomes (K, BB, HR). BABIP has been defined by Baseball Prospectus as “mostly a function of a pitcher’s defense and luck” as opposed to an inherent measure of skill, but when it jumps along with FIP, it can suggest that opponents have been able to find the pitch they are looking for a little more often. The harder a ball is put in play, the more likely it is to fall for a hit.

Gomber has shown signs of dominance in a few starts over this 10-game span, but a 32-day trip to the injured list can be enough to throw off a routine for continual success. A margin of error can be extremely small in the big leagues too, and based on recent showings, we appear to be seeing it with Gomber in real time.

He does get to face the worst wRC+ figure in the American League tonight, so perhaps it will serve as an opportunity for Gomber to hit his stride again. Despite getting the best of Germán Márquez with the longball on Monday night, Texas still ranks in MLB’s bottom third in home runs.

Gomber’s schedule isn’t too favorable moving forward, however, as his next presumed start will come on Sunday against the NL East-leading Braves.

Atlanta currently has the third-most homers in baseball, and this weekend could be a tough ticket for Gomber to return to his early-summer successes. Tonight in Texas might serve as a perfect primer at least, and we’ll see what pitch mix Gomber turns to before a return to elevation.

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The Best, Worst And Weirdest Stats Of The 2021 MLB Season | FiveThirtyEight

Listed only behind “Shohei Ohtani’s all-around MVP performance” is the Rockies’ unreal split between home and road performance. Colorado is 43-22 at Coors Field and 17-49 everywhere else.

Also highlighted are a few weird stats from Raimel Tapia. “His groundball-to-flyball ratio of 2.07 leads MLB by a huge margin, and his 66.9 percent ground ball rate is tied with Ben Revere’s 2012 campaign for the highest single-season mark since at least 2002.”

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Jesse Yomtov of USA Today highlights the high-stakes Dodgers-Giants series coming up this weekend. The Rockies have found themselves playing a key role in the NL West, having just won two of three against the Dodgers over the weekend. Colorado will host the division-leading Giants for three games next week, but not before the two division leaders throw down this weekend.

On the farm

• League-wide off day for Low-A, High-A, Double-A
• Triple-A: Albuquerque Isotopes 9, Round Rock Express 5

Frank Duncan was lights out for the Isotopes in his 17th start of the season. He tossed five innings and allowed one earned run to the Round Rock lineup, punching out eight in the process.

Taylor Snyder, Alan Trejo and Joshua Fuentes all homered on Monday night, combining for five of the eight Isotopes runs. Both Trejo and Snyder had multi-hit games, and eight of the nine hitters in the Albuquerque starting lineup recorded a hit.

(It isn’t every day that MLB and Triple-A lines up perfectly. Round Rock is the Triple-A affiliate of the Texas Rangers, the Rockies’ current opponent.)

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