The curious case of Michael Toglia

When drafted in the first round by the Colorado Rockies out of UCLA in 2019, the assumption was that Michael Toglia was going to be the next great Rockies first baseman and fill a void left by Hall of Famer Todd Helton. As he rose through the farm system it was quite clear that Toglia had plenty of power at his disposal and a glove worthy of gold. However, it became quite apparent that his offensive profile settled into a three-true outcomes result which hasn’t translated well to the big league level.

After a stellar spring training with the Rockies that earned him a spot on the Opening Day roster, Toglia struggled offensively which ultimately resulted in a demotion to Triple-A where he has found much better results with the Albuquerque Isotopes. The case of what to do with Toglia and if he’ll ever make an impact with the big league roster is a curious one because the chasm between his minor league production and major league production seems so vast.

Toglia played 15 games with the Rockies in the first month of the 2024 season. He made 49 plate appearances where he slashed .106/.143/.362 with a total of five hits, four of which were home runs. He struck out 20 times while drawing just one walk and had a 44.4% ground ball rate.

In 30 games with the Isotopes where he has played almost every day, Toglia has made 135 plate appearances resulting in a slash line of .277/.363/.571 with 33 hits including four doubles, two triples and nine home runs. Additionally, he has 15 walks against 35 strikeouts and has a .934 OPS which is the highest of his professional career. By all offensive measures, he has looked like an entirely different player in the minors than he has with the Rockies. So, why is that?

The major difference between the two levels for Toglia has been contact. Swing and misses are naturally going to be part of the makeup of a player like Toglia. He’s never really going to hit for an incredible average but he can offset that by not only having impeccable plate discipline but by making solid contact. To his credit, when Toglia hits the ball, he hits it hard. In his first stint with the Rockies this season, he had a 55.6% hard-hit rate while also posting a 14.8% barrel rate which would have both ranked in the upper percentiles in the length if he was a qualified batter. Down in Albuquerque that hard-hit rate has dropped to 41% which is still an excellent percentage.

It’s also worth noting that according to Statcast's bat tracking data (which is only available for MLB games this season) Toglia has a league-average swing length of 7.4 feet with a slightly above-average bat speed of 73.5 mph. The longer swing and quick bat plays a major factor in Toglia’s power abilities as well as his less-than-ideal contact skills.

We know he wallops the ball when he does make contact thanks to a quality squared-up and blast percentages, but his overall lack of quality contact has been an issue in the big leagues. A whiff rate of 35.5% has plagued big league Toglia resulting in the 35.5% strikeout in his 91 career games and a minuscule 6.1% walk rate. Whether it be breaking balls, offspeed pitches or fastballs, Toglia has struggled to put them in play and has made the lonely walk back to the dugout way too often.

But in Albuquerque this season Toglia has looked much different as he owns a whiff rate of 27.7% along with a 25.5% strikeout rate and 10.7% walk rate. While strikeouts are never great, he has done a good job of countering them with a good amount of walks which also enable him to patiently pick out his pitch and pounce on it rather than flail wildly at pitches outside of the zone which he has done too often with the Rockies.

Is the MLB competition so much better than Triple-A that it’s a chasm too large for Toglia to cross? Gut reactions would say that Toglia is nothing more than a Quadruple-A player but I personally think that’s still premature if not a little harsh. We see players with these kinds of struggles or who fit his mold find success and stick around in MLB. It’s entirely possible that Toglia could learn to follow the example set by Kyle Schwarber rather than Joey Gallo. The best comparison could be another switch-hitter in Josh Bell.

A career .259 hitter with a .793 OPS, Bell is the standard by which Toglia should pursue and being to mold his own game after. The major key to Bell’s success has been his plate discipline. In nine big league seasons he owns an 11.4% walk rate and 18.8% strikeout rate while also providing a good amount of pop in his bat. As a switch-hitter, he has also found a good balance between both sides of the plate, something that is difficult to do and something that Toglia has especially struggled with in his professional career.

Pressing to do too much, not being prepared properly to face opposing pitchers, and other factors may play into Toglia’s struggles. Albuquerque is a great place to hit and Toglia definitely has plenty of confidence in his abilities, but it hasn’t translated beyond Triple-A yet. There were some improvements and some of his at-bats looked much better to start the year, but old habits die hard and he quickly fell into the same pitfalls that have followed him against big-league pitching.

I still see plenty of potential for Toglia as a major-league player, but it’s unclear if that will ever be with the Rockies. First base and right field are already clogged as it is, leaving Toglia without the opportunity to get regular everyday at-bats to work through it and find his footing. Is Toglia the sole problem for his failures with the Rockies or does the top-level team need to realize it’s their responsibility to make sure players are able to improve and get better to survive in the majors?

The answers remain hidden still at this moment, so for now we can simply root for Toglia to keep mashing in Triple-A and hopefully find his footing in MLB to solve this most curious case.

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On the Farm

Triple-A: Sacramento River Cats 3, Albuquerque Isotopes 2

Toglia hit his ninth home run of the season to drive in the only two runs for Albuquerque as they tallied eight hits in their Tuesday night loss. Juan Hillman started on the mound, giving up one run over five innings. Unfortunately, the offense wasn’t able to muster much run support and saw the game slip away as the River Cats struck for a pair of runs to take the lead and win the game late.

Double-A: Hartford Yard Goats 5, Somerset Patriots 4

Despite being outhit as a team, the Yard Goats still pulled off the victory. Mason Albright started on the hill and gave up just two runs on seven hits in 5 ²⁄₃ innings. He worked around three walks while striking out four and giving up just one home run. Adael Amador continued his recent surge with two hits, including his fifth home run of the year while Warming Bernabel also had a two-hit game and drove in a pair of runs.

High-A: Hillsboro Hops 6, Spokane Indians 6

Both teams had 10 hits apiece but it was a four-run top of the eighth that proved the difference maker as the Indians dropped their 21st game of the season. Jake Snider led the way offensively with a pair of hits, including a three-run home run. Victor Juarez took the loss for Spokane after allowing four runs in 5 ¹⁄₃ innings with two walks and six strikeouts.

Low-A: Fresno Grizzlies 3, Modesto Nuts 0

Alberto Pacheco tossed six shutout innings, giving up just two hits while also surrendering four walks. Still, the bullpen was able to keep things locked down as the Grizzlies won via the shutout. There wasn’t much offense to go around but Fresno scored three runs in the top of the second thanks in part to two RBI for Glenallen Hill Jr. Jason Hinchman and Felix Tena both had a pair of hits in the game to contribute to the team’s six total hits.

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