Purple Row - Purple Row Interviews Geoff Young of Baseball Prospectus
Of, by, and for Rockies fans. Every day.
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2013-03-11T10:00:07-06:00
http://www.purplerow.com/rss/stream/3833695
2013-03-11T10:00:07-06:00
2013-03-11T10:00:07-06:00
Purple Row Interviews Geoff Young - Rockies Fandom
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<figcaption>Justin Edmonds</figcaption>
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<p>Part eight of Purple Row's interview with Baseball Prospectus writer and Padres blogger Geoff Young, discussing the frustrations of being a Rockies fan.</p> <p><i>This past weekend I had the opportunity to interview Geoff Young, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/geoff_young/">a writer for Baseball Prospectus</a> (the website) who focuses on the NL and AL Western divisions and <a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1118459199/baseballprospect/ref=nosim/?tag=sbnation-20" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">a contributor to Baseball Prospectus 2013</a> (the book), the premier guide to the 2013 MLB season. Geoff is the founder of Duck Snorts, a prominent <a href="https://www.gaslampball.com/">Padres</a> blog, and he's the writer of the <a href="https://www.purplerow.com/">Rockies</a>, Padres, and <a href="https://www.redreporter.com/">Reds</a> chapters in the book. In the final section of the interview, we discuss the frustrations of being a Rockies fan the last two years.</i></p>
<p><b>Jeff Aberle:</b> Bringing it back to the Rockies to close...I think that Colorado's situation is very interesting. They've got attendance that is in the top half of the league - part of that is the fact that they've got one of the bigger stadium capacities in the league...and they sold out basically the first 7 or 8 years they were a franchise...huge attendance. You just think, "Shouldn't this be a high payroll team?" Ownership keeps saying, "We're spending all our money on payroll, the payroll's as high as the revenue will support" and all that stuff.</p>
<p>But then you see all of these teams that...their attendance is lower or similar to the Rockies - like the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.brewcrewball.com/">Brewers</a> for instance, who drew maybe a few more fans, but their TV market is worse and they spent $98 million plus in 2012. You see those kinds of teams spending and it's a little frustrating. It's obviously doesn't hold a candle to the Padres' situation with respect to TV (many homes in the San Diego area don't have the ability to watch Padres games) and fan base - no disrespect intended, but they don't have the best reputation as a fan base.</p>
<p>It just seems like the Rockies have really done it the right way with respect to building a fan base that will come, rain or shine, and get 30,000 plus into Coors Field per night - but it really hasn't translated into on-field success on a consistent basis...and when you see the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.fishstripes.com/">Marlins</a>, our expansion twin, getting two World Series titles, it really irks me.</p>
<p><b>Geoff Young</b>: Believe me, the Marlins having two World Series titles irks pretty much everybody outside of (Marlins owner/terrible person Jeffrey) Loria - don't get me started on that. For all but a few franchises, I think that it's always an issue: getting people in the seats and showing them a winning ballclub. If you've got the history like the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a> and the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/">Giants</a> do, or the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a>, or the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a>, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">Cardinals</a>, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Phillies</a>, teams that have been around for a while...I don't want to say that all you've got to do is show up, but in a sense if you're those teams you just have to not mess things up because you've already got that loyalty built right in there.</p>
<p>It seems like the Rockies went about it the right way and at least it seems like from afar that they've captured the community; they've got what looks like a gorgeous ballpark - haven't had a chance to visit myself, but I understand that Coors is wonderful. I look at all those things and...I don't know. In terms of building a sustainable on-field franchise...that's what all teams are looking for, but not many find.</p>
<p>The only thing I can think of for the Rockies is to keep trying, which is a horrible answer, but there's no magic bullet - you've just got to try something an hope it works, and if it doesn't work you should try something different. It's an incredibly unsatisfying answer, but it's the best I could do.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: That's kind of been what being a Rockies fan over the last year or two has been like - incredibly unsatisfying. So anyway, you've got a book (the aforementioned Baseball Prospectus 2013) - it's a big reason why we're talking here. It's a great one - I love the content in the book, especially the fact that you guys have thought of a lot of stuff in a different way than the mainstream baseball fan thinks about.</p>
<p>There's a lot of good humor in the player profiles - it's not just listing a bunch of stats, though there are plenty of stats if that's your thing. I love BP's content and just wish that I'd been able to afford it back when I was in college when the Rockies were good.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: Thanks a lot for saying that! You know, we do a lot of the work on it and on the content on the site in a vacuum, we put it out there and hope that it resonates with people - tells them something they don't know or shows them something in a different light. I can't tell you how gratifying it is to hear that it's achieving its intended purpose.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: It's a good time to be reading the book because come April it's all going to become obsolete anyway, right?</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: (laughs) Exactly.</p>
<p><b>JA:</b> Baseball has a funny way of making the best laid plans of mice and men go awry.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: That's right.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: Well Geoff, I wanted to thank you for your time - we do have a podcast on Purple Row, and it might be of interest to the people that run that to have you on in the future if you're willing - give you your once a year chance to talk about the Rockies.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: Sounds good!</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: I know that the Rockies are easy to ignore being in 5<sup>th</sup> place, but we're grateful that writers like you occasionally shed light on them. Thanks again!</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: Absolutely, it was great talking to you.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><b>Previous Installments</b></p>
<p><a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/4/4061348/purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-baseball-prospectus-outfield-defense">Intro and OF Defense</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/5/4065400/nolan-arenado-purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-baseball-prospectus">3B and Nolan Arenado</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/6/4069920/purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-of-baseball-prospectus-4-man-rotation">The 4 Man Rotation</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/7/4073644/purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-of-baseball-prospectus-playing-gm">Playing GM</a></p>
<div><a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/8/4078864/purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-of-baseball-prospectus-2013-outlook">2013 Outlook</a></div>
<div><br></div>
<div><a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/9/4083122/purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-of-baseball-prospectus-padres-and">Padres and Diamondbacks</a></div>
<div><br></div>
<div><a style="background-color: #ffffff;" href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/10/4086112/purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-of-baseball-prospectus-giants-and">Dodgers and Giants</a></div>
https://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/11/4089094/purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-of-baseball-prospectus-being-a
Jeff Aberle
2013-03-10T11:15:04-06:00
2013-03-10T11:15:04-06:00
Purple Row Interviews Geoff Young - SF and LA
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<figcaption>Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Part seven of Purple Row's interview with Baseball Prospectus writer and Padres blogger Geoff Young, discussing the offseasons and outlooks of the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers. Yes, we're jealous.</p> <p><i>This past weekend I had the opportunity to interview Geoff Young, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/geoff_young/">a writer for Baseball Prospectus</a> (the website) who focuses on the NL and AL Western divisions and <a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1118459199/baseballprospect/ref=nosim/?tag=sbnation-20" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">a contributor to Baseball Prospectus 2013</a> (the book), the premier guide to the 2013 MLB season. Geoff is the founder of Duck Snorts, a prominent <a href="https://www.gaslampball.com/">Padres</a> blog, and he's the writer of the <a href="https://www.purplerow.com/">Rockies</a>, Padres, and <a href="https://www.redreporter.com/">Reds</a> chapters in the book. In this portion of the interview, we discuss the offseasons and outlooks of the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/">San Francisco Giants</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Los Angeles Dodgers</a>.</i></p>
<p><b>Jeff Aberle</b>: Alright, so let's move onto the World Series Champion Giants, much as it pains me to say it. I don't know how they do it - they did it a different way, as the book (Baseball Prospectus 2013) says, than they did it when they won in 2010. They did it a lot more with their hitting than with their pitching, as much as the narrative might have stated otherwise. What do you think of their chances to repeat?</p>
<p><b>Geoff Young</b>: I don't think that you can ever really count out a defending World Champion - well, unless they're the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.fishstripes.com/">Marlins</a>. They're a hard team for me to gauge, because I really didn't think that they looked very good coming into last season. I thought that they were going to be...I forget my exact prediction, but if I recall correctly, I had the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a> winning the division and the Giants coming in 2<sup>nd</sup> or 3<sup>rd</sup>, so for one thing, don't take any stock tips from me.</p>
<p>I look at them on paper and I still don't think that they're an awesome team - but...paper's great, but they won a World Series last year with that team, who's to say that they can't get deep into the playoffs with that team again this year? I think that you have to take them very seriously, simply by the virtue that they've already done it.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: The health of their starting rotation has been exemplary, I think that's really helped. I think that they've gotten, for lack of a better word, pretty darn lucky with some of their moves. It makes me angry that <span>Marco Scutaro</span> was terrible for us and turned into a MVP for them.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: That was unbelievable.</p>
<p><b>JA:</b> Yeah, it was ridiculous. The only thing that's good about it is that it forced them to overpay for him over the next few years, which will be nice, but they've got that World Series bump in revenue, so they can afford it. Not that I'm bitter or anything...so what do you think about the situation with the A's - the A's wanting to move to San Jose and the Giants not letting them?</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: Personally, I really wish that they would let the A's go. I think it would be better for baseball. It's easy for me to say, I'm not a resident of the Bay Area, but it seems to me that it would be a really good thing. I mean, the Giants just won 2 of the last 3 World Series, are they really going to lose a lot of fans if the A's move to San Jose? To me that seems a little overprotective.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: I've always had a soft spot in my heart for the A's, so it pains me to see them in the situation that they're in. They've got the Moneyball smarts and the cachet that comes with that, but they're stuck in a terrible venue - I know, I've been there - and they just have a terrible situation in terms of attendance, in terms of revenue. San Jose's a better situation for them, so it's tough for me to see that happen just because the Giants are being a little greedy.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: I completely agree - I'd love to see them just let that go or for MLB to step in...</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: Well (MLB Commissioner Bud) Selig has done nothing. He's just strung them along, saying "Well maybe, I don't know, maybe you could do that, but I'm not going to tell them to let you have the territory" - it's just maddening to me...that's the Giants.</p>
<p>So that brings us to the Evil Empire, Western Edition of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Obviously it seems like the rest of the NL West missed their opportunity when the McCourts had the Dodgers...and now they're going to be stuck against Gigantor for the next few years - that's what it looks like to me. What are your thoughts on the free agent...spending spree is probably a tame word?</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: First of all, I don't think that the team as it stands right now is that great. I think they're good. I know at Prospectus we've got them at 80% chance to make the playoffs, 62% chance to win the division, checking in at around 89 wins. I personally don't think that they will be as good in reality as they look on paper. I may come back to eat my words on that, but right now I don't think that they're the class of the division. That said, with the resources available at their disposal...</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: They could plug holes pretty easily.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: Yeah, it's like the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a> years ago, where it's "Oh, our guy went down...let's just go absorb <span>Bobby Abreu's</span> contract". I can definitely see the Dodgers becoming that team - I mean, they kind of tried it last year when they brought in basically everyone that Boston didn't want to pay anymore. Of course, it didn't get them anywhere, but it did show the fans that they had a lot of money and weren't afraid to spend it.</p>
<p>There's a lot to be said for that, because if you show your fans that you're willing to commit, then they're much more likely to commit back to you. They're saying "wow, we brought all these guys in, we're really doing something here". It's not like signing <span>Michael Cuddyer</span>, not to open an old wound, but it's not window dressing. These are legit guys, so I think long-term, the Dodgers are going to be a real problem for the rest of the NL West. I know that I'm not real comfortable.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: I think they've got maybe 9 or 10 legitimate starting pitchers - they have players the Rockies would really like to have in their starting rotation just hanging around the fringes in LA being paid like $8 million per year to do it. I mean, <span>Aaron Harang</span> and <span>Chris Capuano</span> are their fringe starters.</p>
<p>They paid $61 million (six years) to the South Korean pitcher, Hyun-Jin Ryu, they got the Cuban outfielder, <span>Yasiel Puig</span> for $42 million (7 years) - they've got a glut of outfielders, a glut of starting pitchers, they're paying $22.5 million to <span>Brandon League</span> (3 years) to be a set-up guy. That's not even mentioning <span>Zack Greinke</span>...it's insane, we've never seen this before.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: If not this year, they're definitely going to be a problem in the future...and it might be this year. I don't think that any fans of any of the other teams in this division should feel safe for the foreseeable future. Our only hope is that they do stupid things with their money, and even that might not be enough.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: I think that they've already done a number of stupid things with their money, but I don't think that it really matters to them at this point. They're getting what, $6 billion on their next TV contract?</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: You can definitely outspend your mistakes at that level of revenue.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: Life isn't fair.</p>
<p><b>Tune back tomorrow for the thrilling conclusion of this interview series, which will discuss the future for Rockies fans.</b></p>
<p><b></b><b>Previous Installments</b></p>
<p><a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/4/4061348/purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-baseball-prospectus-outfield-defense">Intro and OF Defense</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/5/4065400/nolan-arenado-purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-baseball-prospectus">3B and Nolan Arenado</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/6/4069920/purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-of-baseball-prospectus-4-man-rotation">The 4 Man Rotation</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/7/4073644/purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-of-baseball-prospectus-playing-gm">Playing GM</a></p>
<div><a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/8/4078864/purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-of-baseball-prospectus-2013-outlook">2013 Outlook</a></div>
<div><br></div>
<div><a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/9/4083122/purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-of-baseball-prospectus-padres-and">Padres and Diamondbacks</a></div>
https://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/10/4086112/purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-of-baseball-prospectus-giants-and
Jeff Aberle
2013-03-09T11:00:06-07:00
2013-03-09T11:00:06-07:00
Purple Row Interviews Geoff Young - AZ and SD
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/vFYxn8AlFZsOKJwY8D0iS9bWa_c=/0x0:1000x667/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/9385053/144644716.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Justin Edmonds</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Part six of Purple Row's interview with Baseball Prospectus writer and Padres blogger Geoff Young, discussing the offseasons and outlooks of the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks.</p> <p><i>This past weekend I had the opportunity to interview Geoff Young, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/geoff_young/">a writer for Baseball Prospectus</a> (the website) who focuses on the NL and AL Western divisions and <a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1118459199/baseballprospect/ref=nosim/?tag=sbnation-20" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">a contributor to Baseball Prospectus 2013</a> (the book), the premier guide to the 2013 MLB season. Geoff is the founder of Duck Snorts, a prominent <a href="https://www.gaslampball.com/">Padres</a> blog, and he's the writer of the <a href="https://www.purplerow.com/">Rockies</a>, Padres, and <a href="https://www.redreporter.com/">Reds</a> chapters in the book. In this portion of the interview, we discuss the offseasons and outlooks of the San Diego Padres and <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Arizona Diamondbacks</a>.</i></p>
<p><b>Jeff Aberle</b>: So we've talked a lot about the Rockies already, but your focus on a macro level at BP is really the Western divisions. Your focus got one team bigger this year with the move of the <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Astros</a> over to the AL West. The Astros are an interesting experiment in showing what a team that had a complete firesale would look like - trading away veterans for prospects and basically fielding a minimum salaried team. That's what we're looking at with the Astros this year, a replacement salaried team. It will be interesting to watch them lose 110 games.</p>
<p><b>Geoff Young</b>: Yeah, the quality of play is going to be a little rough, but they've got a really good group in the front office over there, so I have confidence that they'll be able to build something good after blowing it all up. It's always surprising to me how quickly teams can completely turn around - I mean, they were in the World Series in 2005, and now look where they are. It definitely wouldn't shock me to see the reverse happen.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: Outside of the Astros, I think the AL West might be the strongest division in baseball, depending on how you feel about the <a href="https://www.camdenchat.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Orioles</a> and <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Red Sox</a> this year. I'm just glad that the Rockies don't have to play them on a regular basis. But let's shift our focus to the NL West, since that is the division where both of our teams have their home.</p>
<p>We've talked a little about the Padres already, but let's start with them. Their strength is the farm system - which has been ranked as the best in baseball. That's really where the hope in your team lies.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: Pretty much. The Padres are in a very similar position to the Rockies in that there's going to be a lot of sending young players out there, seeing who sticks and who doesn't. Some of them, like <span>Jedd Gyorko</span>, will hopefully start the season with the ballclub, and others, like <span>Robbie Erlin</span> in the starting rotation, might get called up later on. It's basically an audition for the future while hoping for something more in the present.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: One of our guys at Purple Row (RIRF) wrote <a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/2/14/3988742/nl-west-offseason-in-review-san-diego-padres">in our offseason review of the Padres</a> that San Diego's record over its last 84 games was 48-36 - that's a really nice ending note at the very least.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: Yeah, they played really well down the stretch, just as they did in 2009 before the 2010 season that turned out better than expected. Will that happen again? I wouldn't count on it, but anything is possible. My expectations with them are similar to the Rockies (mid 70s wins).</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: Okay, let's move on to the Diamondbacks. What the heck were they thinking this offseason?</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: I don't know, that's a very good question. There were a lot of very strange moves being made over there, and I don't know if they've really improved their team short-term or long-term. I <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19041">can almost defend the (Trevor) Bauer trade</a>- not quite, but almost -I really don't understand signing <span>Cody Ross</span>, and of course (Justin) Upton...</p>
<p>If (Arizona GM Kevin) Towers had been able to convince Upton to waive his no trade clause and move to Seattle (for a package including SS <span>Nick Franklin</span> and a high end SP prospect), that would have been really interesting. The package that they got from Atlanta (headlined by <span>Martin Prado</span>) wasn't horrible, but it probably should have been better. It's been no secret that Arizona has wanted to move him for a while.</p>
<p>Arizona was a team that, coming into last year I thought was going to be a pretty tough customer, and that didn't really work out due to some injuries and other issues...</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: And their Pythagorean record shows that they probably should have done a little bit better (86 wins instead of 81).</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: I look at that team and I still think they have a pretty decent core - not as good as they would have been had they not traded Upton...</p>
<p><b>JA:</b> And gotten a couple of no-hit shortstops, one of whom is injured...</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: Right, a lot of that just seems like movement for the sake of movement. I don't know everything that Towers and his staff knows, but from an outside perspective I think it's really strange. I don't know what they were trying to accomplish - and even if I did know, I wouldn't be able to judge if they succeeded or not. I just don't know.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: I think that Kevin Towers just couldn't help being himself and invested in the bullpen, bringing in <span>Matt Reynolds</span> from the Rockies and acquiring <span>Heath Bell</span> from the <a href="https://www.fishstripes.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Marlins</a>.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: It was certainly better when he traded Ben Johnson and <span>Jon Adkins</span> for him (when he was the Padres' GM). I don't really have any explanation for the Diamondbacks.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: I was hoping that you'd have a better idea of what Towers is doing since he was your GM, but I guess it's a little confusing for anybody.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: I really don't, because he would make a lot of perplexing moves with the Padres, almost always with trades, very rarely with free agent signings, so the Ross signing really caught me off guard - it's not the sort of move he would have made in San Diego. The trades...well historically he's had a very good eye for pitching, so my natural instinct when I see him move a guy like Bauer is that maybe he knows something about him that the rest of us don't.</p>
<p>That's just based on track record - don't know if that's true anymore, but there was a long time in which I would watch every move Towers made, and if there was an arm involved, I would almost always say "I can't believe he gave up that guy to get that other guy" but five years later I would say "wow, he really ripped that other team off". I'm not saying that's going to be the case with Bauer, but I wonder if there isn't something going on there.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: I think that until they made some of those trades I really liked what they were doing, especially getting <span>Brandon McCarthy</span> at the price they got him for (2/$15 million). He's going to provide a lot of value for them at that price. I actually wanted the Rockies to look at picking him up, even overpaying him a little bit because I think he's a great fit for Coors.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: Yeah, that was a shrewd pickup</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: So I was really upset that the Diamondbacks snagged him, but then they had this bizarre offseason where they'll be about the same as they were last season but with lower upside. Very confusing to me.</p>
<p><b>Tune back tomorrow for Part 7, which will discuss the offseasons and 2013 outlooks for the <a href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">San Francisco Giants</a> and <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Los Angeles Dodgers</a>.</b></p>
<p><b></b><b>Previous Installments</b></p>
<p><a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/4/4061348/purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-baseball-prospectus-outfield-defense">Intro and OF Defense</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/5/4065400/nolan-arenado-purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-baseball-prospectus">3B and Nolan Arenado</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/6/4069920/purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-of-baseball-prospectus-4-man-rotation">The 4 Man Rotation</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/7/4073644/purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-of-baseball-prospectus-playing-gm">Playing GM</a></p>
<div><a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/8/4078864/purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-of-baseball-prospectus-2013-outlook">2013 Outlook</a></div>
https://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/9/4083122/purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-of-baseball-prospectus-padres-and
Jeff Aberle
2013-03-08T10:00:12-07:00
2013-03-08T10:00:12-07:00
Purple Row Interviews Geoff Young - 2013 Outlook
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/nityDYCYEIHIG5ZDLOrD3-FttvY=/0x165:3161x2272/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/9313483/20130301_jla_ar5_350.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Part four of Purple Row's interview with Baseball Prospectus writer and Padres blogger Geoff Young, discussing some Colorado position players, Walt Weiss, and BP's 2013 outlook for the Rockies.</p> <p><i>This past weekend I had the opportunity to interview Geoff Young, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/geoff_young/">a writer for Baseball Prospectus</a> (the website) who focuses on the NL and AL Western divisions and <a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1118459199/baseballprospect/ref=nosim/?tag=sbnation-20" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">a contributor to Baseball Prospectus 2013</a> (the book), the premier guide to the 2013 MLB season. Geoff is the founder of Duck Snorts, a prominent <a href="https://www.gaslampball.com/">Padres</a> blog, and he's the writer of the <a href="https://www.purplerow.com/">Rockies</a>, Padres, and <a href="https://www.redreporter.com/">Reds</a> chapters in the book. In this portion of the interview, we discuss some Rockies position players, Walt Weiss, and BP's 2013 outlook for the Rockies.</i></p>
<p><b>Jeff Aberle</b>: You mentioned <span>Wilin Rosario</span>, who I think is the biggest breakout candidate the Rockies have going into this season. If that guy can clean up his act behind the plate, he's an All-Star.</p>
<p><b>Geoff Young</b>: Easily. He's an offensive force.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: I mean, he's got top 10 raw power in MLB.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: Yeah, he's a stud, a terrific offensive player, and the good news is that the bat will play anywhere even if he does have to move from behind the plate like <span>Mike Sweeney</span>, <span>Paul Konerko</span>, <span>Carlos Delgado</span>, and <span>Justin Morneau</span> did. If he can improve behind the plate though and become a legitimate defensive catcher, that gives you a huge competitive advantage right there.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: I think that the Rockies' real strength is that up the middle - outside of on the pitching mound - they're really good. You've got a guy behind the plate in Rosario who could be a multi All-Star, obviously <span>Troy Tulowitzki</span> at shortstop. There's <span>Dexter Fowler</span>, an OBP machine in center field - despite what the defensive metrics say - and you've also got <span>Carlos Gonzalez</span>, who has been a pretty decent center fielder, again to the naked eye. And then you've also got second base, which I find to be a really interesting position coming into 2013 simply because there are a lot of young guys who are somewhat unproven.</p>
<p>There's <span>Josh Rutledge</span>, who filled in for Tulo pretty well in the second half, coming straight from AA. DJ LeMahieu was the everyday second baseman for the second half of the year...and there's even talk of putting <span>Eric Young</span>, someone who played really well in limited time last year at second base this season. What do you think of those guys?</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: Rutledge did a great job - he brings power from a middle infield position, though his approach at the plate could be more disciplined. I think he's got enough power to off-set his strike zone judgment issues. In my eyes, he's more of a utility player, albeit a really good one. I don't think he'll kill you as an everyday player at second though. LeMahieu falls into that same utility category, though I don't think he's as good as Rutledge. Young is interesting - they're looking at him at second then huh?</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: They view him as a super-utility player. I mean, he's getting some reps at third base, which he's never played before in the minors...second was his position in the minors.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: Right, I was aware of that, just not that they were trying him there this season. Young is a terrific athlete - and his dad played all over the place, especially by the time he made his way to the Padres. If they can get him to play in the infield effectively, that's a pretty useful guy to have around, because he can really get on base...</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: And he's the only guy that can really create havoc on the basepaths for the Rockies.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: EY's a good ballplayer, especially if you can get him in an expanded reserve role. I hope that works out, that would be pretty cool.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: Rounding out the position players, at first base we've got the old bear <span>Todd Helton</span> playing what seems like his last year. Until recently he had a pretty spotless off the field image - his recent DUI was pretty shocking to Rockies fans. In terms of on-field performance, he's going to be pretty limited, not able to play every day - actually, I think backing up Helton is where I think (Michael) Cuddyer's going to provide the bulk of his value. There's also <span>Tyler Colvin</span>, who had somewhat of a renaissance last year in Coors Field.</p>
<p>The production from the position will probably be acceptable, but it will be sad to see Helton go off on this kind of note. He's been a mainstay for Colorado for over 15 years.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: He is an institution there - it's odd to think about as a fan of an opposing team, playing the Rockies and not seeing him out there. I remember when he first came up the Rockies put him in left field because they had Galarraga, but since then he's been manning that position. He was a great player for many years and then a very good player for a few more. Even now, he's really good when healthy enough to take the field. When I think of the Rockies, I think Todd Helton, so it will definitely be strange to see him go.</p>
<p>Some guys, when you think of their team and their player, you think "Gah, I hate that guy" or whatever, but with Helton it's more like, "that's a good guy, if I were a Rockies fan I'd be really happy to have him on the team". He's a really solid representative for the team.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: I think the guy that fans on other teams love to hate for the Rockies is Tulo. He's the guy that draws the ire.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: That comes with greatness I guess.</p>
<p><b>JA: </b>Alright, so we've discussed most of the Rockies by now. As an outside observer who pays more attention to the Rockies than most, can you give me your audit for the Rockies going into 2013?</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: Colorado is strong up the middle if they stay healthy...we've already discussed the third base situation, but ultimately their biggest weakness is the entire pitching staff with the exception of the back end of the bullpen. There's some guys that could be good, but there's going to be a whole lot of sorting this year.</p>
<p>As for their playoff chances this year, BP has them at around 5% and 74 wins and I think that's about right - low to mid 70s in wins.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: I think the Vegas Over/Under is at 70.5 this year (actually 71.5), so I'll take that.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: Ultimately, your guys and my Padres will be fighting it out for 4<sup>th</sup> place this year.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: Unfortunately, I think you're right. I think the realistic best case scenario for this team is somewhere around the 81 win barrier. If we do that, it's been a pretty successful year. It's just tough as a fan when that's your team's upside.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: When you realize that in March it does make for a very long year. But I have to say that, as a Padres fan, we saw the team win 90 games in 2010 when it had no business doing so. It's something of a cliché and the chances are very minimal, but you just don't know, weird things happen.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: Definitely. Before I finish the Rockies chapter of this interview, I'd like to get your thoughts on Walt Weiss as the new manager.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: I'm fascinated by that move. I was hoping they would pick him or (Jason) Giambi, because both would be great stories. Obviously the downside with Weiss is that he doesn't have experience, at least outside the high school level, as an actual manager - so we don't have anything to go off of in terms of strategies and tactics he'll employ other than to realize the coaches he played under, including Tony LaRussa.</p>
<p>More and more I'm coming to believe that there isn't a great deal of difference between managers in terms of their tactical decisions. Instead, I think that much more of the job is in the "leader of men" category, and I think that in that regard Weiss is going to be pretty solid. I know it was high school players, but he has done this before and he's worked under some really good managers. Also, I think the fact that's he has actually played at Coors Field is going to help - he knows how the ballpark operates, how the fans operate - there's a history there.</p>
<p>Obviously we won't be able to write the narrative until we've got some actual data. Maybe we'll look back and say "genius move, he was a fresh face" if it works out well and if it doesn't, then the narrative will be "what were they thinking, he didn't have any experience". It seems to me that as a guy coming out of left field like him in terms of managerial experience, he's actually a good fit for that job.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: My favorite attribute of his is that he isn't Jim Tracy - his leaving was probably my favorite move this offseason. He was just a terrible fit for the personnel we had in place, so I'm excited to see what Walt Weiss can do.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: And not only with on-field personnel, but also with his bosses. I think that with Weiss it will be a much better alignment with the front office.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: It's interesting because the Rockies are really getting the band back together for the 2013 season. Weiss as the manager, Dante Bichette as the hitting coach, EY senior as an adviser, and Pedro Astacio, who was one of their better pitchers back in the day. We'll see how getting the mid 90s Rockies together as a coaching staff works out. From what I can remember, they made the playoffs once but outside of that they weren't actually that good.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: Second time's the charm?</p>
<p><b>Tune back tomorrow for Part 6, which will discuss the offseasons and 2013 outlooks for the San Diego Padres and <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Arizona Diamondbacks</a>.</b></p>
<p><b></b><b>Previous Installments</b></p>
<p><a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/4/4061348/purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-baseball-prospectus-outfield-defense">Intro and OF Defense</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/5/4065400/nolan-arenado-purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-baseball-prospectus">3B and Nolan Arenado</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/6/4069920/purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-of-baseball-prospectus-4-man-rotation">The 4 Man Rotation</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/7/4073644/purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-of-baseball-prospectus-playing-gm">Playing GM</a></p>
https://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/8/4078864/purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-of-baseball-prospectus-2013-outlook
Jeff Aberle
2013-03-07T10:00:14-07:00
2013-03-07T10:00:14-07:00
Purple Row Interviews Geoff Young - Playing GM
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2pthG1zn78w8RXYpcR4fsLs1-T4=/0x170:2667x1948/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/9231629/20120713_mje_aq2_268.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Chris Humphreys-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
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<p>Part four of Purple Row's interview with Baseball Prospectus writer and Padres blogger Geoff Young, discussing what the Rockies might have done differently this offseason - particularly with Michael Cuddyer.</p> <p><i>Over the weekend I had the opportunity to interview Geoff Young, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/geoff_young/">a writer for Baseball Prospectus</a> (the website) who focuses on the NL and AL Western divisions and <a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1118459199/baseballprospect/ref=nosim/?tag=sbnation-20" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">a contributor to Baseball Prospectus 2013</a> (the book), the premier guide to the 2013 MLB season. Geoff is the founder of Duck Snorts, a prominent <a href="https://www.gaslampball.com/">Padres</a> blog, and he's the writer of the <a href="https://www.purplerow.com/">Rockies</a>, Padres, and <a href="https://www.redreporter.com/">Reds</a> chapters in the book. In this portion of the interview, we discuss what the Rockies could have done differently this offseason.</i></p>
<p><b>Jeff Aberle: </b>The Rockies basically did nothing this off-season, when you think about it. They hired Walt Weiss as their manager, which we'll get back to, they made the trade for Wheeler that I mentioned earlier for <span>Matt Reynolds</span>, and they traded <span>Alex White</span> for <span>Wilton Lopez</span> essentially. I'd like to focus on that last move first. The White trade was basically an admission that hey, we're valuing relievers more than a guy who is a potential starter - a guy who has been a good reliever over someone who <i>might</i> be a good starter.</p>
<p>Considering the fact that Rockies relievers threw more innings than anybody else last year, do you think that's a good decision?</p>
<p><b>Geoff Young</b>: I wouldn't have traded White for Lopez, no. I'm not even convinced that White is that good and I got the impression that Coors wasn't a real good fit for him despite his reputation as a groundball pitcher. With that being said, coming off the season the Rockies did and taking a realistic look at what comes ahead in 2013, I would have given White more of a chance to show that he couldn't do it, or that he could. I just don't understand bringing Lopez in, not that he's a bad reliever. It's just that if I'm the Rockies it's just not a priority for me at this point.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: Priorities are a major topic for the fans at Purple Row - many of them, myself included, don't think that the front office has the right priorities in certain cases. For instance, the majority of us wanted to get <span>Michael Cuddyer</span> out of town. I mean, a lot of us didn't want to sign him in the first place, but once the Rockies did, we thought this offseason would be a good time to cut our losses.</p>
<p>One of the trade proposals was - and you know how trade proposals are on blogs - trading him to the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/">Tigers</a>, who are more of a win-now club for a guy like (Rick) Porcello. But then we hear out of Dan O'Dowd and Bill Geivett that they weren't really listening on Cuddyer. Which really is confusing, don't you think?</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: I've read and heard a lot of good things about him (Cuddyer) in terms of clubhouse presence, which isn't necessarily the kinds of things fans of a rebuilding team want to hear about. The Cuddyer signing didn't make sense to me at the time - it seemed like a strange fit. I'm sure he's a great guy, but he's not going to make a difference to the team now, at least not a difference in terms of wins, and he's not going to make a difference in the future, so I don't see a lot of value provided there except clubhouse presence.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: It's a $10.5 million clubhouse presence, that's the problem.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: Well said. We used to complain that the Padres kept around <span>Geoff Blum</span> for that reason, but he was only ever making about $750,000 a year...and $10 million is a lot more costly. It's not how I would have allocated my resources.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: Let's talk about that. Say you're the Rockies' GM right after they just had their worst season in franchise history, 64-98. What sort of strategy might you have taken into this offseason?</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: Well, moving Cuddyer would have been high on my list of priorities. What else...gosh, you could have maybe shopped one of the relievers - I don't know how much of a market there would have been. I wouldn't have traded for another reliever...but honestly I don't see a lot of room for making moves there. Long-term you think you're set at 3B if (Nolan) Arenado pans out the way we think he will...</p>
<p><b>JA</b>:<b> </b>It's a tough spot. The Rockies have a couple of good assets, but they're the kind of assets that are signed long-term and/or cost controlled that we want to keep around. Our deficiency is obviously starting pitching - but we actually have a lot of interesting young starting pitchers, we just don't know what to do with them right now.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: That's the thing. (Drew) Pomeranz could be interesting, (Christian) Friedrich could be interesting, (Juan) Nicasio if he's healthy could be interesting. If Chacin could put two half seasons that are good together he'd be interesting...unfortunately, we don't really know what we have in any of them. That's why I say the Rockies really don't have a chance to contend this year. It's tough to go into a season knowing that, but at the same time it should make your priorities a little bit clearer going into the season.</p>
<p>You can't tell your players, "don't try and win games", but if you go in with the attitude of "nobody's really counting on us" - the Padres did this in 2010 - "we're just throwing a bunch of guys out there, they're playing hard - they're playing for their job in 2014". Sometimes good things happen when you do that.</p>
<p>At the very least you come away at the end of the season with some answers about things that are definite answers right now. At the conclusion of 2013 I can go into 2014 going, "I know what Pomeranz is, I know what (Wilin) Rosario is, maybe I have an idea of what Arenado is". If you could just answer a couple of those questions...that would be my chief priority for the season.</p>
<p><b>Tune back tomorrow for Part 5, which will discuss more Rockies' position players, Walt Weiss, and BP's 2013 outlook for the Rockies.</b></p>
<p><b></b><b>Previous Installments</b></p>
<p><a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/4/4061348/purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-baseball-prospectus-outfield-defense">Intro and OF Defense</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/5/4065400/nolan-arenado-purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-baseball-prospectus">3B and Nolan Arenado</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/6/4069920/purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-of-baseball-prospectus-4-man-rotation">The 4 Man Rotation</a></p>
https://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/7/4073644/purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-of-baseball-prospectus-playing-gm
Jeff Aberle
2013-03-06T10:00:11-07:00
2013-03-06T10:00:11-07:00
Purple Row Interviews Geoff Young - 4 Man Rotation
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/nxrpFYZiiQ-ZJuQzIebSokh6nRc=/0x11:463x320/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/9167097/146082394.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Doug Pensinger</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Part three of Purple Row's interview with Baseball Prospectus writer and Padres blogger Geoff Young, discussing the 4 man rotation from 2012.</p> <p><i>Over the weekend I had the opportunity to interview Geoff Young, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/geoff_young/">a writer for Baseball Prospectus</a> (the website) who focuses on the NL and AL Western divisions and <a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1118459199/baseballprospect/ref=nosim/?tag=sbnation-20" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">a contributor to Baseball Prospectus 2013</a> (the book), the premier guide to the 2013 MLB season. Geoff is the founder of Duck Snorts, a prominent <a href="https://www.gaslampball.com/">Padres</a> blog, and he's the writer of the <a href="https://www.purplerow.com/">Rockies</a>, Padres, and <a href="https://www.redreporter.com/">Reds</a> chapters in the book. In this portion of the interview, we discuss the 4 man rotation.</i></p>
<p><b>Jeff Aberle</b>: ESPN had their<a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8983481/mlb-future-power-rankings-2013-nos-30-16"> future power rankings</a> out in the last couple of days...and it pains me to see the Rockies ranked 30 out of 30. It's been a tough time to be a Rockies fan. 2012 was a Murphy's Law type of season for us - we had a lot of injuries to key players, not necessarily in DL days but in turns of WAR lost, it was pretty significant with Tulo especially.</p>
<p><b>Geoff Young</b>: Yeah, losing Tulo was big.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: And our starting pitching decided to start being terrible - not that they weren't below average before, but they really took it to another level. It was a confluence of an unusually hot and dry summer at Coors Field (causing the park to play even more extreme than usual), combined with a very young pitching staff that couldn't throw strikes and the aforementioned worst defense in the league. That all lead to the Rockies being the worst pitching staff in the league - it was a terrible, terrible year and I'd prefer not to speak too much about it, but I think I have to for this interview.</p>
<p>The Rockies made headlines this year with their four man rotation and a 75 pitch limit...which of course led to <span>Jeff Francis</span> leading the team in innings pitched with 113. As <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18949">you pointed out in a BP article</a>, that's the first time since 1891 that this has happened - or as you say in the book, since the Benjamin Harrison administration. I guess my question to you is, what are your thoughts on A) how it was implemented, B) the thought process behind it, and C) do you think it has any lasting value?</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: What I liked about it was that the organization was thinking in unconventional ways. That's a flexibility in thought process that you don't often find at the major league level. In MLB people are pretty conservative - you don't really see a lot of innovation happen. This sort of reminds me of Tony LaRussa batting the pitcher 8th - it struck me as a really odd thing to do. I don't think that it's the best way of going about it - and I would argue that the results bear that out - but I like the fact that they were thinking about it.</p>
<p>I wonder if the thought process behind it will end up leading the Rockies or another organization innovating in that way with their pitching staffs - this could be a thing that 10 years from now a team will say, "Remember when the Rockies went to that 4 man pitching staff? They didn't quite get it right, but maybe if we tweak it, we might end up being successful with it."</p>
<p>From a completely non-Rockies fan perspective, it was interesting to watch and I'm glad they tried it just because nobody else had the guts to do anything like that. That being said, I don't think that it was a particularly good idea.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: The novel part of it was really the 75 pitch limit - the 4 man rotation was the norm 20-30 years ago. The result of the combination of the 75 pitch limit and the 4 man rotation really was that more innings were being given to long relievers.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: In terms of protecting your investment in young pitching and trying to limit their exposure to high stress pitches late in games - I think that was a noble cause, a good goal. The downside to that is when you're actually trying to compete in ballgames, like you say, all of a sudden you're giving innings to guys who aren't good enough to start and not good enough to close.</p>
<p>They're your second tier pitchers...I'm just making the numbers up here, but when you're knocking 10% of the innings away from your starters, who are theoretically the best pitchers on the team, and giving them to middle relievers, you're creating a problem for yourself in terms of competing in games in a day-to-day basis. As a short-term goal it (the pitch limit) was pretty lousy, but the effort to protect your investment in young arms over the long-term...this is a trite way to say this, but I think their heart was in the right place, but their head wasn't.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: I think the most frustrating thing for me has been how they've leaned on Coors Field as a crutch - and when I say they I mean the Rockies' front office. As recently as 2009 (and 2010 actually) the Rockies lead the majors in WAR from their pitching staff...so they've been successful in putting together a good pitching staff before. The fact that the front office is innovating is great, but I think that they're looking too far afield when the solution was closer to home in terms of getting strikes, working all areas of the zone, and having a good <span>Ubaldo Jimenez</span> - that would have helped.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: You hit on the huge difference there - the personnel are not the same. Losing (Jorge) De La Rosa, (Juan) Nicasio, and (Jhoulys) Chacin and bringing up young pitchers to replace them - I happen to be a fan of (Drew) Pomeranz, but you didn't know what you were going to get, which is fine, but there's a lot of uncertainty there. Having a good Ubaldo would have been nice.</p>
<p><b>Tune back tomorrow for Part 4, which will discuss Colorado's offseason machinations</b></p>
<p><b></b><b>Previous Installments</b></p>
<p><a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/4/4061348/purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-baseball-prospectus-outfield-defense">Intro and OF Defense</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/5/4065400/nolan-arenado-purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-baseball-prospectus">3B and Nolan Arenado</a></p>
https://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/6/4069920/purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-of-baseball-prospectus-4-man-rotation
Jeff Aberle
2013-03-05T10:00:13-07:00
2013-03-05T10:00:13-07:00
Purple Row Interviews Geoff Young - Nolan Arenado
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<figcaption>Christian Petersen</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Part two of Purple Row's interview with Baseball Prospectus writer and former Padres blogger Geoff Young, discussing the hot corner - particularly Nolan Arenado.</p> <p><i>Over the weekend I had the opportunity to interview Geoff Young, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/geoff_young/">a writer for Baseball Prospectus</a> (the website) who focuses on the NL and AL Western divisions and <a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1118459199/baseballprospect/ref=nosim/?tag=sbnation-20" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">a contributor to Baseball Prospectus 2013</a> (the book), the premier guide to the 2013 MLB season. Geoff is the founder of Duck Snorts, a prominent <a href="https://www.gaslampball.com/">Padres</a> blog, and he's the writer of the <a href="https://www.purplerow.com/">Rockies</a>, Padres, and <a href="https://www.redreporter.com/">Reds</a> chapters in the book. In this portion of the interview, we discuss 3B and <span>Nolan Arenado</span>. Here is </i><a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/4/4061348/purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-baseball-prospectus-outfield-defense">Part 1</a>, which discussed OF defense<i>.</i></p>
<p><b>Jeff Aberle</b>: Obviously the Rockies have more problems than just outfield defense. When you look at their 3B rankings in defense, which are a little bit less variable (than OF defense), you see some pretty terrible defenders there by any area of estimation.</p>
<p>It's certainly an area of interest for Rockies fans going forward. Last year we had <span>Jordan Pacheco</span> and <span>Chris Nelson</span> more or less splitting time at the hot corner and 2013 looks to have the interesting variable of two guys: <span>Ryan Wheeler</span>, who was acquired in the offseason in a trade for <span>Matt Reynolds</span> and Nolan Arenado, who was touted as the Rockies' top prospect coming into 2012. The noise on that has been dialed back a bit, but he's expected to be the starter for Colorado in the coming years. What do you think about the Rockies' 3B situation?</p>
<p><b>Geoff Young: </b>Pacheco, first of all, isn't really a third baseman and doesn't hit for the kind of power you'd like to see from a corner infielder. If you're going to have that profile, you really have to offer enough other attributes - become a <span>Bill Mueller</span> type player - to make yourself valuable and Pacheco didn't really do that. I thought that Nelson did a pretty good job, especially given his flexibility...I kind of liked that guy.</p>
<p>Arenado definitely does seem to be the future at third base. It's weird to say that his stock has fallen but he's still a top 60 guy, still a really good prospect. I'm not sure when he'll break in, probably sometime this year - but let's put it this way: whomever is playing at third base this year is just holding his spot. Short-term is does look like a patchwork arrangement. I'm looking at Wheeler right now...</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: He's a guy that's in the mold of a Quad A guy who will be helped by playing at Coors.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: That's exactly what I'm feeling. I'm looking at his numbers right now, he's a tweener, stopgap guy. Even if Arenado doesn't become the star he might have been hyped as coming into 2012, there's no way that Wheeler is standing in the way of a guy like that.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: That's my hope - that Arenado makes the decision moot by killing it.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: That's one of the keys for the Rockies going forward, that's one of the spots where they need the guy that drafted and developed to step up and claim his position. I don't want to sound like I'm down on the guy at all, it's just that sometimes people get really high expectations for a player and when you realize that he's not that guy, people are disappointed and unfairly so. After all, a lot of times that prospect turns out to be a great ballplayer. This is going back a ways, but I like to think of a guy like Greg Jefferies, who was so highly touted coming up that disappointment was inevitable, even if he did end up having a pretty great career.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: The guy in that situation I think of is JD Drew - a top prospect that actually had a great MLB career, but when you think of him you think of disappointment.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: He's a great example. Not to put Arenado in those guy's category in terms of expectations, but if he merely has a good career, I hope people can appreciate that. But we're getting way ahead of ourselves there.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: Absolutely. Thinking more near-term with Arenado - the Rockies have a decision with him. Do they, in a season where there aren't a lot of expectations, do they wait to bring him up until the Super 2 deadline has passed sometime in June? (Super 2 status allows a player to have an extra year of salary arbitration) Or do they put him on the team earlier and give him some seasoning at the major league level?</p>
<p><b>GY:</b> My guess is that he would be brought up sometime this season - teams do like to play those Super 2 games, so that's always a variable. I think that, given the season he's coming off, it might make it a little easier for the management to say with some credibility that he needs to work some more in the minors. We went through that in San Diego with <span>Chase Headley</span>. It didn't end up working, because Headley ended up being a Super 2 player anyway and cost the team a little extra money.</p>
<p>Hopefully in Arenado's case the organization will do the best thing for both the player and the organization, whatever that may be - with regard for Super 2, but I hope they aren't weighting that too much.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: The thing I always think about is that, hey, the Rockies only won 64 games last year. What's the incremental value of going from 64 to 75 wins, right? We talk about marginal wins - maybe a move that will win the Rockies one more game this year, like having Arenado up with the team for a longer time, is that really worth the extra money they're going to have to pay down the road?</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: And there's also some downside to it? What if he's not ready and you have the awkward situation of reducing his playing time or sending him down to AAA? Do you really want to go down that road? For me, Arenado is the kind of player you go, "when it's time, it's time" and when you bring him up you don't send him down again. He's got time on his side, I'm not too concerned about him. Like you say, the team isn't going to win a lot of games this year, so it's better to focus on what is best long-term. The rest should take care of itself.</p>
<p><b>Tune back tomorrow for Part 3, which will discuss the infamous 4 Man Rotation</b></p>
https://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/5/4065400/nolan-arenado-purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-baseball-prospectus
Jeff Aberle
2013-03-04T11:00:11-07:00
2013-03-04T11:00:11-07:00
Purple Row Interviews Geoff Young - OF Defense
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<figcaption>Justin Edmonds</figcaption>
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<p>Part one of Purple Row's interview with Baseball Prospectus writer and former Padres blogger Geoff Young, discussing outfield defense at both Coors and Petco.</p> <p><i>Over the weekend I had the opportunity to interview Geoff Young, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/geoff_young/">a writer for Baseball Prospectus</a> (the website) who focuses on the NL and AL Western divisions and <a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1118459199/baseballprospect/ref=nosim/?tag=sbnation-20" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">a contributor to Baseball Prospectus 2013</a> (the book), the premier guide to the 2013 MLB season. Geoff is the founder of Duck Snorts, a prominent <a href="https://www.gaslampball.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Padres</a> blog, and he's the writer of the <a href="https://www.purplerow.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Rockies</a>, Padres, and <a href="https://www.redreporter.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Reds</a> chapters in the book.</i></p>
<p>In the interview, we spoke at length about the Rockies, the NL West, and more. As a result, I'll be posting excerpts of the interview, grouped thematically, over the coming days. The following is part 1, discussing outfield defense:</p>
<p><b>Jeff Aberle</b>: Geoff, thanks for taking the time to talk with me! My first question to you is: did <span>Matt Holliday</span> touch home plate?</p>
<p><b>Geoff Young</b>: (laughs) Uh, no comment.</p>
<p><b>JA:</b> Yeah, that's really the big argument Padres and Rockies fans have.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: Don't remind me. It was a heck of a game though.</p>
<p><b>JA: </b>No kidding! It was probably the best sports moment of my life. And you know, it wouldn't have ever gotten to that if they wouldn't have called <span>Garrett Atkins</span>' home run in the 7<sup>th</sup> inning a double.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: That's true, that's a good point. I really enjoyed it, especially the part where <span>Scott Hairston</span> was going to be the big hero for the Padres...and then the bottom half of the inning happened.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: Scott Hairston has been a thorn in the Rockies' side no matter what team he's played for. Actually, San Diego seems to grow those guys on trees - the guys that kill the Rockies despite not doing anything against anybody else.</p>
<p>I've always thought that the Padres were like the Bizarro Rockies in the sense that the Rockies have the most extreme offensive environment (in Coors Field) and the Padres have had the most extreme defensive environment (in Petco Park). They're working on trying to mitigate that somewhat this year by moving the fences in (at Petco). I wanted to know what your thoughts were on that.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: I think we're going to have to wait and see how it works out. I assume the team has done its share of studies to try and figure that out in terms of signaling outcomes without actual physical data. To me, when you've got a park that works to such extremes that it would be better to make that park work for you rather than leveling the playing field/changing the environment. It might not be the best idea to change an environment that plays so extreme - but I'm really fascinated to see how it works out.</p>
<p>My biggest concerns from a Padres standpoint is that with the pitching staff they're running out there it has the potential to backfire on them. Last year the <a href="https://www.amazinavenue.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Mets</a> altered the dimensions at Citi Field and all of a sudden the Mets pitchers gave up a lot more home runs. The hitters hit more homers too, but not nearly as many as their pitchers gave up. So that's my concern, especially when the Padres will have <span>Clayton Richard</span> - a guy who led the NL in homers given up last year despite pitching half of his games at Petco - not to mention a number of other fringe guys in the rotation.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: The Devil's Advocate argument of course is that San Diego's real strength has been its hitting, which has been somewhat masked by the park. It might allow a guy like <span>Chase Headley</span> to really show that he's an elite offensive player. There's definitely an argument to be made that something like that could happen at Coors Field where dimensions get altered - it's really hard to say what would happen there.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: It's the great unknown - you take your hypotheticals and make your best guess based on what data you do have available and hopefully the result is pretty close. I actually think that the Padres have one of their best offensive teams in recent years, top to bottom a pretty decent lineup. The question is whether the gains they're going to see will off-set the losses from the pitching staff.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: And the other part of that is defense - you know, how's that going to affect your outfield defense?</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: That's a good point, there will be less room to cover in the gaps, which will be good for (Carlos) Quentin in left. In right and center I don't think it will be as big a deal because (Cameron) Maybin can cover a lot of ground in center and (Will) Venable has played some center before too. I don't think it's going to have too much of an impact there, except maybe that Quentin will be able to play in a few more games.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: Speaking of outfield defense, let's just say that the Rockies seem to struggle in that area in pretty much any sabermetric website, whether it be Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs, or Baseball Reference. The metrics really don't like the Rockies' outfield. How much do you think is that a function of Coors Field - given that the outfield dimensions are so large? How much is it that they're just terrible?</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: Without having specifically studied that metric with respect to that question, my gut is that there's a ballpark factor at work here. No data to back that up, but my gut says that there's got to be an issue that's above and beyond the actual play of those guys, because (Dexter) Fowler looks to me when I see him like he can go get it.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: And he's a -11 FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average) player according to Baseball Prospectus - and (Carlos) Gonzalez is the same way, he's a negative left fielder.</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: Exactly - and he's had experience playing center field before. The defensive metrics are always a challenge, they're a little bit behind in terms of sabermetric analysis in say, offense and pitching. My suspicion is that there is a ballpark effect at play. Nothing to back that up with, but I'll just say that you can't just play 3 lousy outfielders out there every day and get away with it. Yes, the Rockies lost a lot of games last year, but that's been true (poor OF defensive metrics) even when they've won games - there appears to be something more than meets the eye there.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: Well, it's an article idea, right?</p>
<p><b>GY</b>: Yeah, somebody should definitely look into that, because with something like that, when there's smoke, there's fire.</p>
<p><b>JA</b>: Obviously the Rockies have more problems than just outfield defense. When you look at their 3B rankings in defense, which are a little bit less variable (than OF defense), you see some pretty terrible defenders there...</p>
<p><b>Tune back tomorrow for Part 2, which will discuss the hot corner for the Rockies - particularly <span>Nolan Arenado</span>.</b></p>
https://www.purplerow.com/2013/3/4/4061348/purple-row-interviews-geoff-young-baseball-prospectus-outfield-defense
Jeff Aberle