Purple Row - Rockies trade Dexter Fowler to Astros, receive Brandon Barnes, Jordan LylesOf, by, and for Rockies fans. Every day.https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/32779/pr-logo-fv.jpg2013-12-09T08:00:16-07:00http://www.purplerow.com/rss/stream/49375412013-12-09T08:00:16-07:002013-12-09T08:00:16-07:00Thank you for the memories, Dexter Fowler
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<p>Dexter Fowler is no longer a member of the Colorado Rockies. Here's to his time in purple. Here's to a ballplayer who was fun to watch and talk about and cheer for. Here's to Dexter Fowler; once and always a Rockie.</p> <p>Dex is our homeboy.</p>
<p>I labored for a while over that word. "Is."</p>
<p>Could it be the hard reality that Dexter Fowler "was" our homeboy? On one point there is no mistake - no room for debate - and it is that until December 3rd, 2013, Dexter Fowler was unmistakably <i>ours</i>.</p>
<p>I landed on "is" because I know I'm not alone in feeling that in some ways, #24 will always be a part of the <a href="https://www.purplerow.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Colorado Rockies</a> family.</p>
<p>Dexter Fowler introduced me to falling in love with prospects. I guess you could say he was my first. I watched Juan Pierre in a futures game once and awaited his arrival eagerly, but Dexter Fowler was the first guy I ever prematurely bragged about. He was the first player I could turn to my friends and say "the Rockies have this kid that no one has heard of and he could be something great!"</p>
<p>He promptly made his major league debut as a pinch runner and was immediately picked off.</p>
<p>Therein lies the triumph and tragedy of the Dexter Fowler era in Colorado. He has been the kind of ballplayer that can support a myriad of wildly desperate and oftentimes conflicting theories.</p>
<p>His worth is proved by the advanced stats, look how he gets on base.</p>
<p><span><i>His worth is proven by the advanced stats, look at that horrible UZR!</i></span></p>
<p>His drive and character have been called into question.</p>
<p><i>He is one of the only players who shows up and exudes positive energy every day!</i></p>
<p>He is uber streaky and strikes out too much.</p>
<p><i>His most important abilities (getting on base, speed, defense) never waver!</i></p>
<p>He is a well above average MLB player who can do a lot of things to help a team win.</p>
<p><i>But he should be a superstar!</i></p>
<p>And there it is. Dexter Fowler has been as good for debate, and discussion, among the Rockies faithful throughout his career as he has been in the days since his controversial trade to the <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Houston Astros</a>. Was it ever going to be enough that Dexter simply was the player he was?</p>
<p>Or was it important that he turn into something more? Maybe he still will.</p>
<p>In the meantime, lets take a look back at the career that <i>was</i> with one last read through of one of our most interesting and beloved stories of all time.</p>
<h3>The Early Years</h3>
<p>William Dexter Fowler was selected by the Colorado Rockies in the 14th round of the 2004 <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb-draft" class="sbn-auto-link">MLB draft</a>.</p>
<p><a target="_blank" href="http://dexterfowler.com/" style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;">He could have gone to Harvard or "The U"</a>, he maybe even could have given basketball career a run, but the universe (with some help from Rockies scout Damon Iannelli) would bring the teenager from Alpharetta, Georgia to the mythical land of Casper, Wyoming.</p>
<p>With other options on the table, he chose us. And so, a nearly decade's long relationship with a player that would become one of the faces of the franchise had begun.</p>
<p>After his first season as a pro, Baseball America ranked Dexter as the <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Dexter_Fowler" target="_blank">seventh highest rated prospect</a> in the Northwest League. His career would then take it's first controversial turn when the Rockies decided that Dex should become a switch hitter.</p>
<p>Whether or not this was a good idea would be <a href="http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-07-20/news/sns-rt-bbo-rockies-team-reportsxde9bca1-20120719_1_dexter-fowler-rockies-hitters-bats" target="_blank">hotly contested until he finally proved he would hit consistently from the left side in 2012.</a> In fact, almost since the moment that the idea to junk switch hitting went viral, Dex has been a better hitter from the left side. Go figure.</p>
<p>Fowler's minor league career was impressive enough for him to get the opportunity to temporarily trade in his purple pinstripes for red, white, and blue. In 2008 Dex was the starting center fielder for team USA in Beijing. The team would go on to win the Bronze medal, and our own Colorado homeboy got to meet the President!</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1958007/DexterFowler.jpg"><img src="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1958007/DexterFowler_medium.jpg" class="photo" alt="Dexterfowler_medium"></a></p>
<p>via <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/bpv/images/e/e7/DexterFowler.jpg">www.baseball-reference.com</a></p>
<p>(<i>President George W. Bush meets with U.S. Olympic men's baseball team player Dexter Fowler at the 2008 Olympics Games. White House photo by Eric Draper)</i></p>
<p><span>On September 2, 2008, Dexter Fowler got the call.</span></p>
<p>Surely with butterflies in his stomach, and the purplest of blood coursing through his veins in a match-up against the hated rival <a href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">San Francisco Giants</a>, the 22 year-old trotted out to first base and gave goosebumps to prospect hounds and Rockies fans everywhere. A long slow jog back to the dugout a few moments later and the anti-climactic debut was over.</p>
<p>But heart-rates stayed high for the rest of that inning and through the commercial break that followed. You could almost see the talent oozing out of this dude.</p>
<p>An incredibly fun (also sometimes perplexing and frustrating) era of baseball was about to begin.</p>
<h3>Up and down and back up again</h3>
<p>Fowler would play in 13 games in 2008, providing only a snapshot of what was to come. He returned to play 135 games in 2009 and got on base at a .363 clip while showing off some brilliant defense in the outfield.</p>
<p><span>He stole 27 bases in 2009, including five in one game against the <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Arizona Diamondbacks</a>. But like most things Dexter Fowler, this would prove inconclusive if not downright misleading as he failed to steal more than 13 bases in any season until swiping 19 bags in 2013. He will likely never turn into a great base-stealer because he gets slow starts and late jumps, but his top speed makes "Daddy Long-legs" one of the most exhilarating players in the game to watch on the base-paths.</span></p>
<p>Sure, watching Dex go first to third, second to home, and especially first to home can inspire oil paintings and folk songs, but remember that time he jumped over <span>Chase Utley</span> in the NLDS?</p>
<p><span><iframe src='http://wapc.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=7049229&width=400&height=224&property=mlb' width='400' height='224' frameborder='0'>Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe></span></p>
<p>Which reminds me...</p>
<p><span>If the triple is the most exciting play in baseball, what does that make the rare walk-off triple in extra innings?</span></p>
<p><span><iframe src='http://wapc.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=21852615&width=400&height=224&property=mlb' width='400' height='224' frameborder='0'>Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe></span></p>
<p>His early MLB career, however, could be explained mostly through his demotions in 2009 and 2010 followed by his promising performances after each. There is certainly plenty of circumstantial evidence to suggest that Dexter Fowler responds incredibly well to adversity and being challenged. He bounced back after each trip down I-95. But at times that felt even worse, even more tantalizing, and even more maddening because we never knew if it would stick.</p>
<p>Dexter would go through a month where he missed by so much he couldn't even hit the ball with the wind off his bat. He'd get sent down and come back like <a target="_blank" href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nK056dWK7ts">Selina Kyle at a masquerade ball</a>; totally <i>owning</i> the bat.</p>
<p>His defense would become another point of debate as he would sometimes appear not to be running hard, which I attribute to the smoothness of his stride, and defensive metrics never liked him, which many of us attribute to Coors Field's massive outfield.</p>
<p>Because <a style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;" href="http://wapc.mlb.com/play/?content_id=23896187&query=dexter%2Bfowler" target="_blank">he can also do this.</a></p>
<p>And <a href="http://wapc.mlb.com/play/?content_id=26658053&topic_id=vtp_must_c&query=dexter%2Bfowler" target="_blank">this</a>... a<span>nd </span><a style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;" href="http://wapc.mlb.com/play/?content_id=24090261&query=dexter%2Bfowler" target="_blank">also wow this.</a></p>
<p>The crazy thing is, those aren't even the cream of the crop. There are five Dexter Fowler plays that set themselves apart for me based on the combined amazingness and clutchiness. Note the game situation in each of these and let no one ever say that Dex didn't put his body on the line for Rockies fans.</p>
<p><span><iframe src='http://wapc.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=11265875&width=400&height=224&property=mlb' width='400' height='224' frameborder='0'>Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe></span></p>
<p><span><iframe src='http://wapc.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=11021223&width=400&height=224&property=mlb' width='400' height='224' frameborder='0'>Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe></span></p>
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<p><span><iframe src='http://wapc.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=26779463&topic_id=11493214&width=400&height=224&property=mlb' width='400' height='224' frameborder='0'>Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe></span></p>
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<p><span>His wizardry in the outfield was perhaps best displayed when he was <i>not</i> manning the great wide open for the Rockies.</span></p>
<p><span> "Dexter Fowler would have caught that ball," became a regular meme here at Purple Row directed at anyone (everyone not named Carlos Gonzalez) who struggled in center field at times when Dex was absent. It got to the point where even when Dex himself was surprisingly unable to track down a tailing line drive, the phrase would be uttered (or typed) ironically. </span></p>
<p>If it <i>was </i>catch-able, unless he misread it off the bat, "Dexter Fowler would have caught that ball."</p>
<h3>Power Struggle</h3>
<p>When he first came up and I was still trying to get my dad psyched about Dex, I used the ole' "five-tool player" bit.</p>
<p>He was bean pole. "He's skinnier than you," my dad said to me, "there's no way he is going to hit for power."</p>
<p>"He's going to develop it," I replied, "he will fill out and his minor league numbers are <i>so </i>encouraging." That would not be even remotely close to the first or last time two Rockies fans would have that exchange.</p>
<p>Astro's fans may well be having it right now.</p>
<p>His slugging percentage has always been enticing but it is aided by his speed. Until 2012, Fowler seemed destined for a life of single-digit home runs, but a strong finish led him to a then career high 13 home runs. As 2013 began, it looked like Dex might finally have turned into a player who scares opposing pitchers with a legitimate power threat.</p>
<p>His monster April was summed up by <a target="_blank" href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/10/31/5051288/2013-colorado-rockies-player-reviews-dexter-fowler">Andrew T. Fisher in his 2013 player review</a>:</p>
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<p><span>"Dexter homered in 4 of his first 6 games, then added a two-home-run game in Petco Park in the tenth game giving him a .325/.386/.825 line with 6 HR just 10 games into the season. He added two more in April and sported a 172 wRC+ despite a below-career-average BABIP."</span></p>
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<p>Many thought this was the year. Dexter Fowler would finally be an All-star, he would be a switch-hitting version of <span>Carlos Gonzalez</span> and when combined with how he finished 2012, it finally seemed like this was the time it wouldn't fade away.</p>
<p>He did this to the Brewing Milwauk's:</p>
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<p>Everything he does, he does with style. This is the power and style that drove Rockies fans nuts in both good and bad ways for a long time. Two words: bat flipz.</p>
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<p>His numbers came back to Earth, of course, but when he went down with an injury (along with everyone else on the roster in one nightmarish game) his season of being productive was essentially over. He would return with sub-par play, then land on the DL again which may have ultimately been the final straw for Rockies management.</p>
<p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/11/26/5147632/dexter-fowler-trade-rumors-rockies-dan-odowd">It is now no secret that Dan O'Dowd, and likely others in the front office, came to question Dexter Fowler, even going so far as to do it publicly.</a></p>
<p>All I will say on the matter is that I don't know the truth one way or another. It never seemed to me before that there were any questions about <span>Dexter Fowler's</span> character and to make those comments as Dex was on his way out the door feels a bit terse and like an unnecessary grab for the moral high ground.</p>
<p>There doesn't always have to be a good guy and a bad guy. Positioning yourself to be the former by claiming the other party to be the latter just makes you sound like the ex-lover who has to badmouth the person they just spent almost ten years with in order to feel secure about dumping them.</p>
<p>Conversely, I seriously doubt Dan O'Dowd would just completely make something up. So I see no point in speculating further since there <i>is</i> a true story and the likelihood that I guess it 100% correctly is next to none.</p>
<h3>Goodbye, dear friend</h3>
<p>I am sad to see Dexter go. "Sad" is a simple word, but it is the right one. I am not devastated, nor enraged, outraged, or even angry. But I am sad.</p>
<p>To this moment, Dexter Fowler has never played a second of professional baseball for anyone but the team that drafted him when he was eighteen years old. <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=451594#gameType='R'&sectionType=career&statType=1&season=2013&level='ALL'" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;">Looking at this just doesn't feel right.</a><span> He has only ever been ours.</span></p>
<p><span>It occurs to me that Dexter is only a few months older than I am and I feel like in many ways we grew into baseball adulthood at the same time. Obviously in very different ways.</span></p>
<p>If <span>Todd Helton</span> was the wise sage who taught me the fundamentals of the game when I was young, Dexter Fowler was the wacky college professor who showed me the complexity, randomness, and frustration of the game. The beautiful mess of it all.</p>
<p>Dex, you will be missed.</p>
<p>You will be missed by countless Rockies fans throughout the world who count you as their own. You will be missed by anyone who ever sat in the Rockpile and stared in awe when you turned those seats into the best in the house. You will be missed by purveyors of fun; your chief export.</p>
<p>You will be missed by a great deal of people who will cheer you on no matter where life takes you, but will always believe you looked best in purple. Purple Monday. Every day.</p>
<p>You will be missed, Dexter Fowler, and you will not be forgotten.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">****</p>
<p>I have a simple request - not a command - in honor of Dexter Fowler's time here. I ask that the comments on this article be reserved for sharing Dex memories, moments, .gifs, and stories. There are plenty of places to talk (rant) about the trade <a target="_blank" href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/12/5/5178434/thursday-rockpile-addition-by-subtraction">here</a> and <a target="_blank" href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/12/5/5177630/best-possible-case-scenario-for-the-2014-colorado-rockies">here</a>, or in today's Rockpile.</p>
<p>Additionally, I had a difficult time coming up with a definitive "Top Five Dexter Fowler Moments" list. Some of his best achievements aren't really moments - like leading the league in triples in 2010 - so I figured I'd throw it to the people to decide. You can vote in the poll below or even submit your own <a target="_blank" href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/11/18/5116780/rockies-top-prospects-list-mlb-fall-2013" style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;">PuRPs-style list</a> and I will do a follow up piece with a blurb on each one if need be.</p>
<p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/11/18/5116780/rockies-top-prospects-list-mlb-fall-2013" style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;"></a><span>So, let us rejoice and be merry in remembrance of someone who gave us nearly a solid decade of memories.</span></p>
<p>Ask a casual Rockies fan before last week to name their favorite Rockie and Dexter Fowler's name is unlikely to fall out of their top four. Naturally there is <span>Troy Tulowitzki</span>, Carlos Gonzalez, and the greatest Rockie of all time; Todd Helton.</p>
<p>And then there was Dexter Fowler; maybe not the face of the Rockies, maybe not the muscle or the heart... but he was the smile. Goodbye, dear friend, and thanks for the memories.</p>
https://www.purplerow.com/2013/12/9/5191116/thank-you-for-the-memories-dexter-fowlerDrew Creasman2013-12-06T10:06:49-07:002013-12-06T10:06:49-07:00Friday Rockpile: Respect the Chemistry
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<p>"[H]e's the kind of player who brings leadership to a team — especially a young team like ours. He does everything the right way."</p>
<p>-Michael Cuddyer, on Justin Morneau
</p> <p>It's funny how the word "chemistry" refers to something unquantifiable when used in a sporting sense. In science, chemistry is utterly exact: add substance X to solution Y and observe explosion Z. If you measure the ingredients perfectly and mix them appropriately, the result is always the same.</p>
<p>Chemistry in baseball, though, is undefined, unobservable, and certainly unmeasurable. You can't add two servings of guts, a pinch of grit, and several teaspoons of determination to a ball club and watch a winning team emerge. Baseball chemistry is built on cliche, abstraction, and--quite possibly--post hoc mythologizing. Maybe teams have great chemistry because they win, not the other way around. Chemistry is created through a jumble of ill-defined elements, brought together with no formula or set of iron-clad rules. It's the opposite of scientific chemistry; it more resembles alchemy.</p>
<p>Because of the unquantifiable nature of baseball "chemistry", the statistically-minded baseball community ignores, or even mocks, the very concept. We can count home runs, strikeouts, innings pitched, and bases stolen. We can look to history and calculate exactly how many runs it takes to add a win to a ball club. We can apportion credit or blame to a particular player for virtually every event on the field of play. <i>Those </i>are the building blocks of wins, they say. In order to win you must assemble the correct mixture of talent based on what they do on the field, not what they supposedly do in the clubhouse.</p>
<p>But maybe we have it all wrong.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.purplerow.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Rockies</a> organization obviously places great importance on those intangibles that make up chemistry. Some money quotes, straight from the horse's mouth:</p>
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<p>It’s called the human analytics. I think human analytics are just as important as statistical analytics. Hard to measure it because there’s no statistical formula for that, but really understanding what’s inside a guy is actually more important than what comes out of a guy because that’s the only way you know if you’ve got a winning player on your hands.</p>
<p>Like <span>Michael Cuddyer</span>’s case. He’s a perfect example of a guy that gets every little bit out of whatever ability he has and does it solely related to winning that game that night. It’s problematic in the whole industry right now, trying to find those kind of guys because it starts at a very early age with the entitlement factor. So when kids get put into the game based upon what the game owes them rather than the understanding of how appreciative they are of the opportunity, it creates an uphill battle right away. So I think it’s really important in our development system that we address a lot of the issues that we are now addressing as it relates to creating that tougher player that understands how to play for his team rather than play for himself.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Chop</p>
<blockquote>
<p><i>Q: Has anything about Dexter disappointed you?</i></p>
<p>A: Dexter’s a great kid and he knows that we all feel that way about him. But I think he’s got to get tougher. No doubt. He’s got to show up and play with an edge every day, not just when he thinks he has to. It’s got to be that edge that he brings every day. He’s got to be a passionate competitor in the game. He has to love the game. He’s got to compete because he loves the game and he loves his teammates and he wants to win. It can’t be for anything the game provides. It’s got to be for those reasons.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>-Dan O'Dowd, in an 11/25/2013 interview with Dave Krieger</p>
<p><span>Dexter Fowler</span> would not be long for the Rockies; indeed, the trade was likely all but set in stone as of that interview. And in his place came a couple scrappy guys from Houston and big <span>Justin Morneau</span>, who is a hell of a dude, according to Michael Cuddyer (the paragon of do-it-the-right-way-itiveness).</p>
<p>What do we Rockies fans really know about Dexter Fowler? We know his stat line, which looks mighty attractive for a center fielder. We know his thousand watt smile. We know about those jokey commercials, epic bat flips, and a maddening inability to maximize his considerable tools.</p>
<p>What don't we know about him? Maybe when the season started to slip away he lost focus. Maybe he lacked the toughness to play while a little banged up. Maybe he was scared his stats would suffer. Maybe he didn't make an extra effort to step up when Tulo and Cargo got hurt. Maybe we overvalued Dexter; as Keith Law <a href="http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/49579/mlb-insider-keith-law" target="_blank">said in a chat</a> yesterday, "from asking around [the industry], the Rockies did try to find a better offer for Fowler and couldn't. Maybe they turned down something we would like more than what they got, but other execs aren't telling me that they thought Colorado sold too low."</p>
<p>As observers from a distance, we have no way to know. But O'Dowd is in on the ground floor, and he was obviously unhappy with his center fielder's drive. Why else would he make those comments to Krieger? As some sort of parting swipe? Surely he wouldn't be so vindictive. Maybe he was just calling it like he saw it.</p>
<p><b>***</b></p>
<p>What turned a 69 win <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Red Sox</a> team in 2012 into a 97 win team in 2013? Sure they made some good moves in the off season, but that can't possibly explain a 28 win swing. I think most people agree that players hated playing under Bobby Valentine in '12, but thrived under the steady leadership of John Farrell. What is that, if not chemistry?</p>
<p>What turned the dysfunctional Rockies of the early '09 season, who were 9 games under .500 in late May, into a dynamic 92 win team? Things turned on a dime when Clint Hurdle got the boot. Was their collective under-performance early in the year simply random variation, just bad luck that they all slumped at once?</p>
<p>I used the word "maybe" about a zillion times in this article, and I don't like to do that. I like to be sure about things. I like adding WAR and talking about OBP and taking the piss out of BIG GRAND NARRATIVES.</p>
<p>But maybe (here's that word again!) the Rockies do have a plan, despite every observer's protestations to the contrary. Are "human analytics" an under-exploited concept in MLB? I hate to bring up an often-derided O'Dowdism, but maybe building a "culture of value" isn't some buzz-phrase. Having great players is obviously critical; but maybe they are searching for additional qualities that foster greatness in others.</p>
<p>Who can say if it will work. Michael Cuddyer was supposed to be a model of hustle and leadership, but his Rockies tenure has coincided with two last place finishes. The Front Office has decided to double down on character with the addition of Justin Morneau. It doesn't look great on paper. But now I'm interested to see how it turns out. Perhaps, beyond all odds, the Rockies will find a way to turn lead into gold rings.</p>
<p><b>LINKS</b></p>
<p>Bill Geivett says the Rockies <a href="http://blogs.denverpost.com/rockies/2013/12/05/bill-geivett-says-rockies-arent-finished-making-offseason-moves/16093/" target="_blank">aren't done modifying the team</a>, and says there's still room in the payroll. This makes sense based on previous comments about a rising payroll and how the Fowler-to-Morneau maneuver is payroll neutral, or might even have saved a million or two. Patrick Saunders speculates that the team is looking to add a reliever. Also included is a note that Walt Weiss has no concerns that <span>Carlos Gonzalez</span> can't handle center field.</p>
<p><span>Brian Wilson</span> <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/reliever-brian-wilson-returns-to-dodgers-with-new-contract?ymd=20131205&content_id=64418788&vkey=news_mlb" target="_blank">has re-signed</a> with the <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Dodgers</a>, to the tune of $18.5 million over two years. Seems like a bit of an overpay, but that word isn't in the Dodgers' lexicon. They must have a printing press running non-stop in Chavez Ravine. He'll be yet another effective piece in a loaded baseball team.</p>
<p><span>Robinson Cano</span> just <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/robinson-cano-reportedly-agrees-to-deal-with-seattle-mariners?ymd=20131206&content_id=64441206&vkey=news_mlb" target="_blank">signed with the Mariners</a> for 10 years and $240 million dollars. That's a spicy meat-a-ball.</p>
https://www.purplerow.com/2013/12/6/5178586/friday-rockpile-the-chemistry-must-be-respectedRockiesFan0002013-12-05T10:34:24-07:002013-12-05T10:34:24-07:00Thursday Rockpile: Addition by subtraction?
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<figcaption>Hannah Foslien</figcaption>
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<p>The Rockies traded away a fan favorite in switch-hitting centerfielder Dexter Fowler this week. Can this move make the team better in 2014?</p> <p>The trade of Dexter Fowler for what has been described as pennies on the dollar or, "a quarter for a dime and a nickel," has made most Rockies fans angry this week. While I do not think anyone can argue that the Rockies won or even tied in the talent value of the trade, the Rockies have improved themselves while saving money. Add into this fact that the <strike>2010 Twins</strike> 2014 Rockies used the money saved to add Justin Morneau, and this has been a successful week for the front office in improving the team for next season.</p>
<p>I know this may sound crazy for some of you so let's break down how this can improve the team. The first place to start is the black hole that was the number five pitching spot. Last year in games not started by Chacin/DeLaRosa/Chatwood/Nicasio, seven Colorado pitchers started 50 games. They combined for a 6.47 ERA in 246.3 innings with 167 strike outs to 95 walks (1.76 SO/BB rate). This came at a cost of about $3 million for the contracts of Francis/Garland/Oswalt plus close to the minimum salaries for the other four pitchers.</p>
<p>In comparison, over the past two years Jordan Lyles has also started 50 games. He has pitched more innings (283 vs. 246.3), had more strikeouts (192 vs. 167), walked fewer batters (91 vs. 95), and produced a lower ERA (5.35 vs. 6.47). Add the fact that he is young and still has room to improve and he gives the Rockies a better option than whatever was thrown out every fifth day last year. The obvious caveat to this line of reasoning is that he now has to pitch half his games at Coors Field and will have to adjust his pitches whenever the team goes on the road and when he returns. Overall, on paper there appears to be a positive WAR change of about 1 for the team (-1.2 vs. -2.2).</p>
<p>The next piece of the trade is Brandon Barnes. If the front office intended him to replace Dexter Fowler, then the team would be in trouble offensively. However, I do not think this is the plan. Putting him in a platoon with Corey Dickerson/Charlie Blackmon gives the Rockies a strong right-handed bat to help protect their young left -handed bats. Last year against left-handed pitching, Barnes was a very successful .295/.354/.437. A .791 OPS is not an all-star, but it matches/betters Fowler's bat from the right side. On days he does not start, Barnes also becomes a useful bat off the bench. Compared to the primary right-handed bench bat last year, Jordan Pacheco, Brandon can be seen as nothing but an upgrade as last year he was worth 1.7 OWAR more over a similar number of bats.</p>
<p>Finally, the related move of picking up Justin Morneau. Morneau will work very well as a platoon at first with either Michael Cuddyer or Wilin Rosario. Even if he was used there everyday, Justin posted 2.4 rWAR more than Todd Helton last year. He is entering his age 33 year this year so there may be some decline but this is still an improvement for the team. It may not be what most of us wanted for a first baseman, but it gives the team a short term option as they search for answers.</p>
<p>Overall, the improvement to the fifth starter role, the bench, and first base, on paper, make the team 5.1 wins better than the 2013 version. It takes a little bit of a leap of faith to see everything working out to make this a reality. Lyles will have to at least match his past production while pitching at Coors Field, Morneau will have to get a boost from moving to Coors that hides his aging similar to his former Twins teammate Michael Cuddyer, and Barnes will have to prove successful in a platoon/bench role. Also, Cargo's likely move back to centerfield will need to be a positive for the team.</p>
<p>As a whole, the 2013 Rockies often failed due to a lack of depth, both in the pitching staff and throughout the lineup/on the bench. This week the Rockies took a chance in using an expendable piece of the team to try and meet their needs. Dex was a favorite of many of us, but with the organization's depth in the outfield and his future price continuing to rise, the Rockies sought to add to the team by subtracting a good player. It is the type of move the Rockies will have to continue to make based on their current business model. We will have to wait until 2014 to find out how successful this particular move turns out to be.</p>
<p>Links for the day:</p>
<p>An explanation of what the <a href="http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_24657563/colorado-management-believes-justin-morneau-can-find-his-stroke-and-offer-power-and-experience" target="new">Rockies hope for out of Justin Morneau</a>.</p>
<p>The Rockies are in luck with this year's draft. MLB.Com says it is <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/col/led-by-north-carolina-states-carlos-rodon-mlbcoms-ranking-of-top-50-draft-prospects-revealed?ymd=20131204&content_id=64354604&vkey=news_col" target="new">deeper than last year and filled with pitching talent</a>.</p>
<p>Bernie Pleskoff keeps the Tyler Matzek hopes alive, <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/col/bernie-pleskoff-colorado-rockies-tyler-matzek-developing-in-ascent-through-system?ymd=20131202&content_id=64340280&vkey=news_col" target="new">discussing his work in the fall league</a>.</p>
<p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/12/5/5178492/thursday-off-topic">Off-Topic </a></p>
https://www.purplerow.com/2013/12/5/5178434/thursday-rockpile-addition-by-subtractionKevin V. Minor2013-12-05T09:30:02-07:002013-12-05T09:30:02-07:00Best (possible) case scenario for the 2014 Rockies
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<figcaption>Thomas B. Shea</figcaption>
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<p>Confused by the recent Rockies news? Grasping for answers on Dexter Fowler and Justin Morneau? Here's one man's attempt to dive into a world where this all makes sense and find answers wherever they may be.</p> <p>It's been a crazy few days in baseball. Judging by the reactions on the internet, it's been a nightmarish few days for <a href="https://www.purplerow.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Colorado Rockies</a> fans. In case you haven't heard (you have) the Rockies traded <span>Dexter Fowler</span> for two guys who's own mothers might not have made the trade if they were running the club at 20th and Blake.</p>
<p>Then the Rockies used the savings on Justin Morneau which sent a very clear signal; either they don't know what they're doing, or they are about to prove a lot of people wrong by finding another pitcher-in-the-rough and employing a highly effective, stats-oriented platoon system.</p>
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<a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/12/3/5172174/dexter-fowler-trade-rockies-astros-jordan-lyles-brandon-barnes">
<h2>Rockies trade Dexter Fowler for ... dammit</h2>
<img src="http://cdn1.sbnation.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/24442427/20130503_kkt_ah2_819.0_standard_730.0.jpg"></a> <span>Well, the Rockies will receive <span>Brandon Barnes</span> and <span>Jordan Lyles</span> from the <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Astros</a>.</span>
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<p>In the midst of a lot of understandable <a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/12/4/5173204/wednesday-rockpile-dexter-fowler-trade-jordan-lyles-brandon-barnes-rockies-astros" target="_blank">pain, anger, and frustration</a>, I found this observation from one Chris Chrisman to be exquisitely on-point:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>"I think following a baseball club is fun regardless of whether they're good or bad (or in between), or run well or poorly (or in between). Baseball is intrinsically good, and there's joy to be derived whether your team is the <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">St. Louis Cardinals</a> or the St. Louis Browns. So while I'd greatly prefer rooting for a winner rather than a loser, the difference between the two isn't enough for me to give up or switch to another team." -Chris Chrisman</p>
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<p>It is in that spirit (or resignation to the fact that most of us are not going anywhere) that I embark upon the journey of trying to see these moves through the eyes of the Rockies brass. It can be both fun and educational to ponder the best possible way this can work out without being burdened for a moment by the mental block that is the certitude that things won't workout perfectly.</p>
<p>Much of this is a crystallization of points being made by others and an extrapolation on several points that RhosdIslandRoxFan touched on <a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/12/4/5175440/purple-row-video-breaking-down-yesterdays-circus" target="_blank">in this video segment</a>. Therefore, I highly recommend a viewing.</p>
<p>And so I present, however likely or unlikely, the best case scenarios for how these moves will help the Rockies toward being a surprise contender in 2014.</p>
<p>...get ready to be sick of the word "scenario."</p>
<h3>1. Tulo and Cargo Remain Healthy and Productive</h3>
<p>After the dust settles and heart-rates fall back from the stratosphere - and those who need to replace their <a href="http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2010/06/29/article-1290465-005DAF0100000258-354_634x407.jpg" target="_blank">Hulk-smashed, purple-shorts-matching t-shirts</a> have done so - there will still be Cargo and there will still be Tulo.</p>
<p>What is the single biggest factor in the Rockies win total next season? Or any season since 2007? Probably the production of Troy Tulowitzki. This is to say that no player could affect the team in a wider range, either for the worse by not playing at all, or for the better by putting up and MVP caliber season.</p>
<p>He is still the heartbeat of this team and a season of his very best, coupled with another good <span>Carlos Gonzalez</span> season could end up requiring very little of the supporting cast.</p>
<p><b>Best Case Scenario</b>: Tulo finally wins the MVP award (really not out of the realm of possibility) while putting together an injury free season. Carlos Gonzalez puts on a show-stopping "Robin" act, having one of the better seasons of his career allowing the rest of Colorado's offense to fall into place nicely.</p>
<h3>2. Jhoulys de la Chatwood Maintains</h3>
<p>If JDLC was really one person, what I said about Tulo above would be false. Alas, the Rockies three top arms are also attached to three different people and their likely regression is as well documented as their stellar 2013 performances. Since we are being positive right now I can see two reasonable best-case scenarios for JDLC in 2014.</p>
<p>(Yes I said "we" so if you are reading this you tacitly consent to being positive. Ha!)</p>
<p><b>Best Case Scenario 1</b>: Jorge de la Rosa and <span>Jhoulys Chacin</span> regress while <span>Tyler Chatwood</span> takes the next step.</p>
<p>In this scenario, Jorge regresses slightly due to age and Chacin due to 2013 being too ridiculous to repeat. However, much to the surprise of some, Tyler Chatwood regains his form and even takes another step forward in his progression, capitalizing on his potential and moving from exciting piece to potential ace, especially when factoring in the extra innings from a fully healthy season.</p>
<p><b>Best Case Scenario 2</b>: Chatwood and JDLR regress, Chacin becomes true ace.</p>
<p>Behind curtain number two, Chatwood makes his expected regression but remains a good rotation pitcher. Jorge de la Rosa regresses again, which I could absolutely see not happening, just trying not to go completely off the deep end with the best of all "possible worlds" idea.</p>
<p>The interesting part here is that I actually could see Chacin, coming into his physical prime, really putting it all together and establishing himself as a legitimate major league ace.</p>
<p><b>Ok, less exciting Scenario 3</b>: Nothing that dramatic happens one way or another for any of the three but the amalgamation of progressions, regressions, and general production amount to roughly the same three-headed, monster-of-the-hill that Rockies fans came to love in 2013.</p>
<h3>3. Jordan Lyles = Tyler Chatwood 2.0</h3>
<p>This <i>has </i>to happen in order for anyone to ever be o.k. with the Dexter Fowler trade. His unimpressive MLB numbers to this point, his youth, and his quick rise through the minor leagues represent the totality of the legitimate comparisons to Tyler Chatwood. Well, that and the fact that many people are doubting now, like they were for Chatwood before 2013, that this young pitcher will ever realize his potential.</p>
<p>It should of course be noted that Lyles fWAR of .4 in 2013 in 141.2 IP would be better than what the Rockies got out of any single 5th rotation starter last season. Fangraph's "Steamer" projection system predicts a 4.55 ERA and a .7 fWAR for Lyles in 2013. Their "Oliver" system projects ironically the exact same fWAR output for both Chatwood and Lyles; 1.5.</p>
<p>If Lyles surpasses that number, a lot of people will be surprised. But it wouldn't even be going the whole Chatwood (from 0.3 to 2.0) so I'm using the 1.5 fWAR mark as the reasonable place for optimists to quietly drink our purple kool-aid.</p>
<p>The Rockies actually have a decent track record of pitcher reclamation projects lately (JDLR, Chatwood) and if Lyles is the next one, it goes a long way toward explaining an otherwise maddening trade.</p>
<p><b>Best Case Scenario</b>: Jordan Lyles cements himself as a serviceable, innings eating, and even occasionally dominant <span>4th rotation guy</span><span>, a la Chatwood, and becomes a very exciting young piece for the team (one last time all together now...just like Chatwood!) going into only his age 23 season.</span></p>
<h3>4. Crop of young pitchers produces a gem or two</h3>
<p>In order for 2014 not to be an unmitigated disaster, two of Jordan Lyles, <span>Juan Nicasio</span>, <span>Drew Pomeranz</span>, Cristian Friedrich, <span>Chad Bettis</span>, Jon Gray, or Eddie Butler need to equal out to at least two MLB average starting pitchers.</p>
<p><b>Best Case Scenario</b>: Two of Jordan Lyles, Juan Nicasio, Drew Pomeranz, Cristian Friedrich, Chad Bettis, Jon Gray, and Eddie Butler become at least MLB average starting pitchers...and then a little bit more.</p>
<h3>5. Brandon Barnes, the depth we never knew we needed</h3>
<p>My biggest problem with this whole thing in my initial reactions was that I felt they handcuffed the team defensively. I had been of the mindset that the best thing to do was to stick Cuddyer's below average defense at first base and upgrade by adding a quality outfielder. But without me noticing (o.k. I admit to having maybe once heard of Brandon Barnes before Tuesday) the Rockies may have done just that...</p>
<p>Well, at least for games against left-handed pitchers. Every defensive metric, every eye test, and all the hearsay points to Barnes being nothing short of an outstanding outfielder. On paper, he appears to be the proverbial "all glove, no bat" guy that often gets eaten alive at the big league level. But he may prove to be the depth we never knew we needed.</p>
<p>As RIRF points out in the video, Barnes has significantly better numbers against lefties than he does against righties and has for his whole career. If his role on this team is as a late game defensive sub/right handed pinch hitter/occasional starter against lefties, then the Rockies may have figured out a way to dramatically improve the outfield defense and bench depth at absolute minimal financial cost.</p>
<p><b>Best Case Scenario</b>: Brandon Barnes starts against left-handed pitchers putting up an approximation of his career average .736 OPS and spells Cuddyer, Morneu, and even Dickerson and Blackmon in some games in the outfield, presumably after all these hitters have taken early leads.</p>
<h3>6. Justin Morneau, a renaissance man</h3>
<p>I'm putting the legitimate over/under at 1.5 fWAR for Justin Morneau in 2014. I'll take the over and wouldn't call anyone foolish for taking the under.</p>
<p>RIRF notes in the video that one of the biggest worries in losing Dexter Fowler is losing his ability to get on base. Dex has a career BB% of 12.3 percent and OBP of .365. While I like the ideas that RIRF mentions of some of the young guys like Dickerson, Blackmon, or even Arenado taking upticks in this department, I think the safest bet to address this specific need is the newly acquired Justin Morneau.</p>
<p>If you average his last two good seasons (2009 and 2010) and his last two seasons in general, Morneau's BB% comes to 10.775 and his OBP to .363. None of those numbers include Coors Field. That plus the possibility of him being platooned wisely (to be discussed more in a moment) could mean that those numbers are actually the low end of what to expect from him.</p>
<p>Another interesting wrinkle in this is that (other than a 40 game rookie season) <span>Justin Morneau's</span> career high in strike out percentage is 17.9 percent. Dexter Fowler (not counting <i>his </i>13 game rookie cup-of-coffee) has never posted a number lower than 20.6 percent in his MLB career. Over their whole careers, Fowler strikes out at a 22.3 percent clip, while Morneau sits at a cool 15.6 percent.</p>
<p>Morneau has been a slightly above average guy at seeing pitches (3.81 p/PA last season) so in the aggregate may end up being a fair replacement for the patience/on base that the Rockies are losing in Dexter Fowler, while adding more consistent power.</p>
<p>Also, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2013/12/4/5175656/mlb-rumors-james-loney-pirates-rays" target="_blank">according to this</a>, <span>James Loney</span> (a favorite around here to take over at first base) could be seeking a three year $27-30M contract. If he gets anything close to that, the Rockies got a steal in Morneau for 2/$13M.</p>
<p><b>Best Case Scenario</b>: Justin Morneau has a renaissance and then some, posting a Cuddyeresque, career season aided by Coors Field, hitting in a deep lineup, being a year further away from injuries and being put in only the best situations for him to succeed.</p>
<p>Which brings us to...</p>
<h3>7. Platoon-o-rama</h3>
<p>Dick and Charlie are ready to be put to creative use! That is, <span>Corey Dickerson</span> and <span>Charlie Blackmon</span>. Who else?</p>
<p>A number of questions have arisen about lineup construction. As of right now, here are the best lineups I can think of:</p>
<p>VS. RHP</p>
<p>Gonzalez</p>
<p><span>Dickerson</span></p>
<p><span>Morneau</span></p>
<p><span>Tulowitzki</span></p>
<p><span>Cuddyer</span></p>
<p><span>Rosario</span></p>
<p><span>Arenado</span></p>
<p><span>DJLM/Rutledge</span></p>
<p><span>Pitcher</span></p>
<p>If Cuddyer regresses, which seems likely, and/or starts to really struggle against righties, you could even insert Charlie Blackmon in his place, improving the defense and loading up on left-handed bats. <span>This would also allow Cuddyer, like in the Morneau case, to save his energy for the handedness-of-pitcher that really tickles his fancy.</span></p>
<p>VS. LHP</p>
<p>Barnes</p>
<p>Gonzalez</p>
<p>Tulowitzki</p>
<p>Cuddyer</p>
<p>Rosario</p>
<p>Arenado</p>
<p>Blackmon/Dickerson</p>
<p>DJLM/Rutledge</p>
<p>Pitcher</p>
<p>If Barnes puts up the .736 OPS discussed above, this is a scary lineup for any southpaw.</p>
<p>The combination of Blackmon, Dickerson, and Barnes (and I guess throw <span>Charlie Culberson</span> in there) gives the Rockies the flexibility to rest their old guys, make effective late-game substitutions, and mitigate the negatives of certain players with dramatic splits.</p>
<p>RIRF gives an excellent breakdown in the video from 13:35-16:25 on exactly how and why this kind of system can work.</p>
<p>He mentions in the video that properly platooning Morneau, Barnes, and Cuddyer could easily lead to a .850 or even a .900 OPS from first base, obviously a huge upgrade from a year ago. If we give that number the best-case-scenario bump and stick it at .950, a lineup that already had terrorizing moments last season just turned its biggest weakness into a major strength.</p>
<h3>In Conclusion</h3>
<p>Looking over those lineups, and really this whole exercise, has led me to two singular truths that must manifest in order for this idea to be successful.</p>
<p>1.) The Rockies front office and coaching staff must be both willing and able to execute an on-field strategy of creativity, flexibility, and acute insight into almost every facet of the game which needs to be employed on a near daily basis.</p>
<p>and...</p>
<p>2.) A logical final move is for the Rockies to spend most of the between $4M and $7M in remaining savings on a catcher that hits left-handers well and plays solid defense.</p>
<p>The reason for this second conclusion is that such a player would complete the platoon-circle-of-life and allow the Rockies to trot out a lineup of entirely right-handed hitters and Carlos Gonzalez. It would also upgrade defense at catcher and give Rosario's knees some much needed time off while keeping his bat in at 1B.</p>
<p>The only problem is, I'm not sure this player exists. Maybe Kurt Suzuki just needs some fresh mountain air? Maybe the Rockies can swing a trade for a slightly more expensive backup catcher?</p>
<p>Maybe the Rockies just go platoon crazy and split that money between a catcher of the described profile and a left-handed second baseman to platoon with LeMahieu or Rutledge and trade the other one for a pitcher of some kind. Or a<span>re they done spending money?</span></p>
<p>I shared this story in the comments yesterday, but after all the craziness was finally slowing down in my head from these latest moves, I turned my DVR to one of my favorite shows from when I was a kid; Michael J. Fox's Spin City. In this particular episode, the Mayor was dealing with some anxiety about his predecessor and Mike tells him, "sir, you don't have to be jealous of <i>him</i>." And the Mayor responds, "I'm not jealous, Mike, I just want what he has."</p>
<p>I couldn't help but think of the Rockies already infamous "Not a salary dump! We have <i>PLANS</i> for the money!" sentiment. Spending on an above average backup catcher and/or another bullpen arm could prove the trade more defensible... but it is now, and will forever have been, a big fat honking salary dump.</p>
<p><span> </span>***</p>
<p>Even with all these best case scenarios, I never posited in an in-depth way the outside chance that either Jon Gray or Eddie Butler gets cashed in as insurance for Jordan Lyles or Juan Nicasio and ends up taking the league by storm. Improbable? Yes. Impossible? Not at all.</p>
<p>But it really is the conclusion I arrived at first that likely will be the sticking point for many Rockies fans. To paraphrase another valid RIRF point, how playing time is allocated will have a major impact on the overall competitiveness of this team.</p>
<p>The signing of coaching neophyte Blake Doyle as the new hitting instructor may be one sign that they are ready for some new, potentially outside-the-box ideas.</p>
<p>Ultimately, however, it remains that many will always and forever believe that the Rockies simply could have gotten a better return for Dexter Fowler, and that regardless of how well Lyles and Barnes play the Rockies should have at least valued their biggest trade chip more than this return suggests...especially in this market.</p>
<p>The last few days scream, "we're the smartest guys in the room!" Especially the Jordan Lyles part. And many fans would be quick to point out that the Rockies have given us very little reason to believe them to be the smartest guys in any room designed to create championship Major League Baseball teams.</p>
<p>And yet, if somehow this all works out how I've showed it might, they will certainly look a lot smarter than anyone is giving them credit for now.</p>
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<link href="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/assets/3604021/nextclicks.css" rel="stylesheet"></p>
https://www.purplerow.com/2013/12/5/5177630/best-possible-case-scenario-for-the-2014-colorado-rockiesDrew Creasman2013-12-04T12:20:09-07:002013-12-04T12:20:09-07:00Purple Row Video: Breaking down yesterday's circus
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<figcaption>Bob Levey</figcaption>
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<p>In this video, I discuss the biggest problems the Rockies face in losing Dexter Fowler, their inability to generate enough of a return, and why acquiring Brandon Barnes as part of the deal makes sense when coupled with the Justin Morneau signing.</p>
https://www.purplerow.com/2013/12/4/5175440/purple-row-video-breaking-down-yesterdays-circusMatthew Gross2013-12-04T08:33:58-07:002013-12-04T08:33:58-07:00Wednesday Rockpile: Fowler trade makes no sense
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<figcaption>Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>In trading Dexter Fowler to the Houston Astros for fourth outfielder Brandon Barnes and struggling young pitcher Jordan Lyles, the Colorado Rockies traded a quarter for a dime and a nickel...and then used that 15 cents to buy an over the hill first baseman. It's hard to see how this trade makes any sense for the Rockies.</p> <p>I found out about the <span>Dexter Fowler</span> trade yesterday afternoon when I got an email with <a href="http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2013/12/3/5172102/astros-acquire-dexter-fowler-from-rockies">a link to MLB Daily Dish's commentary on the trade</a>. I read the headline and was...horrified? Disappointed? A little of both, sure, but the best word to describe my instant reaction was befuddlement.</p>
<p>As in, what just happened? As in, we traded Fowler for that?!? As in, in what world is this a good idea?</p>
<p>I wasn't surprised that Fowler had been traded - the writing seemed to be on the wall for some time on that. No, it was a combination of the suitor and the package that really surprised me. After all, the <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Astros</a> had just spent the past couple of years trading anything with a price tag <i>away</i> and the return...well, <span>Brandon Barnes</span> and <span>Jordan Lyles</span> were on nobody's shopping list in exchange for Dex.</p>
<p>After looking at the deal for quite some time and reading the opinions of many knowledgeable baseball people and fans, I can't say that my initial opinion has changed much (though there's certainly less anger). To see what those people thought, please look at <a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/12/3/5173336/dexter-fowler-trade-reactions-from-around-the-internet">last night's Internet reactions post</a>.</p>
<p>I'll take a gander at what the front office's thinking might have been in a little bit, but first I'd like to give an accounting of the assets involved in the transactions the <a href="https://www.purplerow.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Rockies</a> participated in yesterday:</p>
<h3>To the Astros</h3>
<h4><b>Dexter Fowler - Outfielder, toothpaste model, leaper over things</b></h4>
<p><b>Contract: </b>$7.35 million in 2014, arbitration eligible in 2015 (projected salary about $9-10 million)</p>
<p><b>Strengths</b></p>
<ul>
<li><span>Patience at the plate, leading to high OBP. Dex's career .365 OBP and 65 walks per year will play anywhere - especially at the top of a lineup</span></li>
<li><span>Speed - he doesn't steal as many bases as his speed would suggest, but he's a near automatic first to third guy on a single and he can cover a lot of range in the outfield</span></li>
<li><span>Sneaky pop - a large part of this is due to Coors Field's large outfield, which when combined with his speed turns a lot of singles into doubles and doubles into triples</span></li>
<li><span>General above averageness - the last three years Fowler has been between 2-2.7 WAR, a number that has been suppressed somewhat by advanced defensive metrics not compensating enough for the aforementioned Coors Field outfield.</span></li>
</ul>
<p><b>Weaknesses</b></p>
<ul>
<li><span>Questions about what he'll do playing his home games outside of Coors Field - his road line is .241/.333/.361 and overall he's just a career .270 hitter if batting average is your thing. Also, there is a big perception that Fowler is a streaky hitter (his power in particular seems to come in bunches).</span></li>
<li><span>Injury history - while Fowler hasn't even been sidelined for a really significant time by an injury, he does seem to have a lot of nagging injuries that cause him to miss time. His knee injury that knocked him out of much of September was a great example of this. Fowler's missed time each of the last three years with various maladies.</span></li>
<li><span>Perceived lack of capitalization on his talent - Fowler <i>looks</i> like he should be a star given his tools, but above average has proven to be the apex of his production</span></li>
<li><span>Cost - Fowler's $7.35 million cost could be construed as excessive given the questions about him</span></li>
</ul>
<p><b>Summary</b></p>
<p>Fowler, warts and all, is an above average MLB regular outfielder signed to a reasonable contract ($3.5 million per expected WAR is about half the market rate) whose perceived deficiencies probably won't amount to a huge loss in value on the move to Houston. That's why the Astros wanted to trade for him.</p>
<h4>Player To Be Named Later - riding through the desert on a similarly named horse</h4>
<p>While I certainly hope that this will turn out to be organizational filler or cach, there's always the potential for the Astros getting an intriguing lower-tier prospect in this deal. For the sake of my sanity I'm going to hope that it just turns out to be cash and that it's a non-factor in the deal.</p>
<h3>To the Rockies</h3>
<h4>Jordan Lyles - Pitcher, young</h4>
<p><b>Contract</b>: Pre-arbitration, under team control through at least 2017</p>
<p><b>Strengths</b></p>
<ul>
<li><span>Has 377 major league innings under his belt by the age of 22</span></li>
<li><span>Scouts say he has above average control and command</span></li>
<li><span>Has an above average ground-ball rate (career 48.6%)</span></li>
<li><span>Has youth (he'll be 23 next year) and first round pedigree (#38 pick in 2008, he was Baseball America's #42 prospect in 2011) indicate room for growth as a pitcher</span></li>
<li><span>Story matches another Rockies trade target who was rushed to the big leagues and possessed a high groundball rate in <span>Tyler Chatwood</span></span></li>
</ul>
<p><b>Weaknesses</b></p>
<ul>
<li><span>He hasn't had good results in those 377 innings - he's got a career 5.35 ERA,1.45 WHIP, and opponents have hit .283/.341/.454 against him</span></li>
<li><span>He doesn't have Chatwood's raw stuff (particularly velocity). Lacks a strikeout pitch - he throws five different pitches per Pitch F/X and all five pitches provide below average value, particularly his low 90s fastball. This means that Lyles is highly dependent on the defense and the park behind him. Coors Field is not usually the best fit for such a pitcher.</span></li>
<li><span>His xFIP and other peripherals have consistently outperformed his ERA (which is why Fangraphs likes him a lot more than Baseball-Reference) but <span>Roy Oswalt</span> had that same profile last year - indicating that when contact was made against Lyles, it was hard contact that was more likely to be a hit.</span></li>
<li><span>As mentioned above, when contact is made against Lyles it tended to be hard contact. Many of those hits against him went for homers - his career 12.8% HR per flyball rate is abysmal.</span></li>
<li><span>If rWAR's your thing Lyles has been rated as worth -1.0, -0.7, and -1.2 wins by Baseball-Reference over his MLB career. Why is Lyles better than Colorado's existing rotation options again?</span></li>
</ul>
<p><b>Summary</b></p>
<p>Lyles has youth, groundballs and a good feel for pitching on his side, but his results and stuff indicate that he's not an effective MLB pitcher - and I fear that in Colorado he may never be. He'll improve by virtue of actually having an excellent infield defense behind him, but I fear that improvement will be countermanded by the move to a very hitter-friendly ballpark. At this point I'd rather roll the dice on <span>Drew Pomeranz</span> in the fifth rotation spot than use it on Lyles.</p>
<h4>Brandon Barnes - Outfielder, defense, scrappy</h4>
<p><b>Contract</b>: Pre-arbitration, under team control through at least 2018</p>
<p><b>Strengths</b></p>
<ul>
<li><span>Cheap and under team control for five seasons</span></li>
<li><span>Plays very good outfield defense - good enough defense that Baseball-Reference had him at 1.7 wins in 2013. He'll be a good late inning defensive replacement.</span></li>
<li><span>Is a passable hitter against lefties - a career .280/.335/.401 line over 199 plate appearances</span></li>
</ul>
<p><b>Weaknesses</b></p>
<ul>
<li><span>He might be the worst position player hitter in the Major Leagues. Baseball Prospectus's True Average offensive metric projected him to have the worst mark in the league. On any other team in the league (okay, maybe the <a href="https://www.fishstripes.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Marlins</a>), Barnes wouldn't have seen much action last year.</span></li>
<li><span>He has terrible strike zone awareness - he struck out 127 times last year and walked just 21 times. His career OBP is .282.</span></li>
<li><span>He's not an upside play either. Defensive value (let's face it, that's really his only value) peaks at a young age...and Barnes is Fowler's age.</span></li>
</ul>
<p><b>Summary</b></p>
<p>For a team that leaned on its bench so much last year, the Rockies really needed an upgrade to who would be getting that playing time. Instead they got a bench player who will not be an offensive asset for the team and who shouldn't play at all unless it's against lefties. Barnes plays very good defense, but his bat is the kind that DH for.</p>
<h4>Sweet, sweet cash relief</h4>
<p>The Rockies added two minimum salary players (about $1 million) to their payroll while unloading Fowler's (reasonable) $7.35 million deal, leaving them with roughly $6.5 million in salary relief. Hmm...what other move did the Rockies make yesterday that cost them $6.5 million? Oh right, the Rockies traded that $6.5 million in cash for...</p>
<h4>
<span>Justin Morneau</span> - First base, former MVP, hockey enthusiast</h4>
<p>Troy Renck did a pretty good job of <a href="http://blogs.denverpost.com/rockies/2013/11/28/rockies-wish-list-the-case-for-justin-morneau/16066/">explaining why the Rockies would want Morneau</a>. Here's my take:</p>
<p><b>Contract</b>: Two years, slightly under $13 million with a mutual 3rd option year</p>
<p><b>Strengths</b></p>
<ul>
<li><span>Was very respectable against right-handed pitching in 2013, posting a .280/.352/.467 line against them. If healthy, he'll be a decent bet to improve upon his power numbers</span></li>
<li><span>Reports indicate that he'll be pretty good defensively at first base (okay, some reports indicate otherwise, I'm taking the positive view) - and combined with a league average bat, that's a useful player</span></li>
<li><span>Veteran presence in the clubhouse (rejoining former <a href="https://www.twinkietown.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Twins</a> teammate <span>Michael Cuddyer</span>) - he also won't be intimidated by stepping into Todd Helton's shoes</span></li>
</ul>
<p><b>Weaknesses</b></p>
<ul>
<li><span>Injuries are a big concern for Morneau - after all, the man has been sidelined multiple times for concussions and really hasn't been the same guy since suffering one in 2010.</span></li>
<li><span>He'll be 33 in 2014, and the onset of age (slower bat speed) in combination with his injury history lowers his ceiling considerably</span></li>
<li><span>The Rockies no doubt consider him to be more of an everyday solution, but Morneau should not be playing against left-handed pitching (.207/.247/.278 line against them in 2013)</span></li>
<li><span>He has the following projection for 2014 with the Rockies from ZIPS maven Dan Szymborski:</span></li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<p>ZiPS projection for Morneau in Colorado 2014: 280/343/457, 104 OPS+ 0.9 WAR. 2015: 277/339/453, 102 OPS+, 0.5 WAR</p>
— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) <a href="https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/statuses/408082978045059073">December 4, 2013</a>
</blockquote>
<p>
<script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p><b>Summary</b></p>
<p>Even if Morneau does only produce 0.9 WAR for the Rockies in 2014 as Szymborski projects, that will be a large upgrade from the terrible production the Rockies got from the position in 2013. If the Rockies platoon Morneau with <span>Wilin Rosario</span> or Cuddyer, that situation gets even better. Still, Morneau is getting paid a lot of money for a declining first baseman (limited utility) with large platoon splits and a scary injury history. I really feel like the Rockies could have spent their money more wisely here.</p>
<h4>Other effects of this move on the Rockies</h4>
<p>The Rockies will likely be moving <span>Carlos Gonzalez</span> to center field, a move that will improve his value to the team. It might also be a good idea to move him into the lead-off position as well. Meanwhile, most of Fowler's plate appearances will go to the <span>Corey Dickerson</span>/<span>Charlie Blackmon</span> duo, who will try to prove they belong as MLB regulars in 2014.</p>
<p>Barnes's presence might mean less of a role for <span>Charlie Culberson</span>, which is a shame because I think Culberson's a better player. Lyles will probably get slotted into the rotation though it's not clear that he deserves to be, meaning that <span>Chad Bettis</span> and even Drew Pomeranz is more likely to head to the bullpen.</p>
<h3>Colorado's motivation for making the Fowler trade</h3>
<p>In recent years the Rockies have made many a move that leaves fans just scratching their heads. Here's a few potential motivations that I see for the Rockies making these moves (specifically Fowler).</p>
<h4>1. The Rockies really like Jordan Lyles and Brandon Barnes</h4>
<p>Maybe the Rockies really think that Lyles will become the mid-rotation savior the team has been searching for and that Barnes will be a valuable utility outfielder. If that does turn out to be the case, the deal would be a definitive win for the Rockies.</p>
<p>I just don't think that there's a good possibility that it does. I don't think that Lyles is much better (if at all) than pitchers like Chad Bettis and Drew Pomeranz that were slotted to compete for the fifth slot in the rotation and I think that Barnes will be useless as a bench bat.</p>
<p>If the Rockies thought that this deal was a good return for a player like Fowler, then I vehemently disagree with Colorado's front office on this one and don't really know what more there is to say on the matter.</p>
<h4>2. The salary relief is a precursor for acquiring more players</h4>
<p>Here's a telling quote from <a href="http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_24647289/dexter-fowler-traded-from-colorado-rockies-houston-astros">Patrick Saunders's article on the deal</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Rockies general manager Bill Geivett disagreed with the suggestion that trading Fowler was a "salary dump."</p>
<p>"I will say that when we open the season, our final payroll number is going to be what it's going to be," Geivett said. "Any money that we aren't spending on Dexter is going to go to somebody else."</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Isn't trading a large salary away so that you can spend that money elsewhere the very definition of a salary dump Bill? There's no denying that the Fowler trade provided extra salary flexibility for the Rockies - it's just unclear if Colorado will be able to buy Fowler's level of production for that extra money.</p>
<p>This depends somewhat on if you think that the Rockies would have spent the money on Morneau if they still had Fowler's salary on the roster. If the money saved from Fowler was truly earmarked for Morneau...then this line of thinking is unfathomably bad. Morneau is an inferior player to Fowler and trading a valuable asset for pennies on the dollar so that you can make room for a player of Morneau's caliber is pure idiocy.</p>
<p>Therefore, I have to hope that the Rockies have a different target in mind for the salary relief generated by the Fowler trade - preferably on a starting pitcher who's unquestionably better than the current fifth starter derby options, but possibly on a good reliever and a good bench bat.</p>
<p>That could be a decent outcome for the Rockies, but the whole logic behind the deal is still terrible. Colorado could have just built around the team they had in place with a complementary signing or two and gone for it in 2014 with Fowler doing Fowler things for the Rockies. As a GM you shouldn't be considering too heavily that you'll be freeing up payroll to potentially sign other players. Instead, you need to focus on getting the best return for your assets and making your team better through these kinds of transactions (either short or long term). In this regard I believe that O'Dowd and company failed miserably.</p>
<p>I have to believe there was a better deal out there for a player like Fowler - and if there wasn't, then there's absolutely no reason for the Rockies to be trading Fowler at this point for that return. Unless...</p>
<h4>3. The Rockies just really didn't like Dexter Fowler</h4>
<p>I really hope that this wasn't the primary motivation for a deal, but there's a lot of evidence supporting this conclusion. In <a href="http://blitzkrieg13.com/2013/11/25/rockies-will-listen-to-offers-for-dexter-fowler/">his interview with Dave Krieger last week</a>, Dan O'Dowd dropped plenty of hints that the Rockies were not pleased with Fowler - questioning his desire and toughness.</p>
<p>I think that a lot of this frustration from Dan O'Dowd stems from Fowler not making the leap from league average regular to star given his tools. Fowler has certainly had stretches in which he looked like the best player on the field for the Rockies - which made it even more frustrating to everyone when he was unable to sustain that level or, really, improve from year to year.</p>
<p>A large part of that is on Fowler of course - it's his career after all - but it's a black mark on O'Dowd's player development resume to have a player like Fowler not achieving his full potential on the roster. I think that O'Dowd had built a Fowler break-out into his off-season plan for the Rockies multiple times only to get burned by it not materializing as he'd hoped.</p>
<p>In addition to that pent up frustration over Fowler failing to develop as planned, it was clear that the Rockies were unhappy with Fowler not coming back quickly from injuries like the hamstring injury he sustained in August. The FO wants the team to get tougher and I believe that Fowler was an example to them of a talented player who didn't care enough about the game to a) play through pain and b) to improve his game to help the team.</p>
<p>The corollary to this line of thinking is that the Rockies <i>really</i> liked Justin Morneau. Because he possesses certain traits that O'Dowd and the front office were looking for, Morneau is a player that I was almost resigned to the Rockies overpaying coming into the off-season...and lo and behold it has come to pass!</p>
<p>It's part of the "human analytics" mumbo jumbo that O'Dowd was describing in the Krieger interview. If you asked the Rockies who was a more valuable player, Fowler or Morneau, I'm almost certain they would say Morneau (which is preposterous given the stats) because he brings that competitiveness, toughness, and leadership to the table. Call me crazy, but I'd prefer that my players be good on the field than in the locker room.</p>
<h4><span>In conclusion</span></h4>
<p>This move <i>is so</i> Rockies. Colorado traded their starting center-fielder (and a PTBNL?!?) for a homer-prone young fringe starter and a reserve outfielder - and used the savings from the deal to overpay an oft-injured, swiftly declining 33 year-old first baseman. Of course they did.</p>
<p>They had a quarter in Dexter Fowler, then they traded him for (charitably) a dime (Lyles/Barnes) and a nickel (salary relief). They then took that 15 cents and spent it on a below average, aging, injury-prone first baseman that should be platooned and might not even be good defensively. Even though it might end up being a positive outcome for the Rockies, this trade is a disaster from a player evaluation and basic logic standpoint. It's a nightmare for Rockies fans and confirmation to many that this front office is just out of its depth. Time for a change.</p>
<p>Dan O'Dowd: you have been weighed, you have been measured, and you have been found wanting.</p>
<p>Purple Row will have more on these transactions in the days to come - stay tuned! This is the worst.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/12/4/5174488/wednesday-off-topic">OFF-TOPIC</a>.</p>
<p>
<link rel="stylesheet" href="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/assets/3604021/nextclicks.css"></p>
https://www.purplerow.com/2013/12/4/5173204/wednesday-rockpile-dexter-fowler-trade-jordan-lyles-brandon-barnes-rockies-astrosJeff Aberle2013-12-03T23:00:02-07:002013-12-03T23:00:02-07:00Fowler Trade: Reactions from around the Internet
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<figcaption>Chris Humphreys-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
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<p>The verdict is in: the Internet hates the Dexter Fowler trade for the Rockies</p> <p>Here's the situation: <span>Dexter Fowler</span> <a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/12/3/5172174/dexter-fowler-trade-rockies-astros-jordan-lyles-brandon-barnes">actually got traded today</a> to the <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Houston Astros</a> in exchange for <span>Jordan Lyles</span> and Brandon Barnes. I'll have a more lengthy take on the subject in tomorrow's Rockpile, but in order to tide you over until then, I've curated a list of what others think about it.</p>
<p>After all, it's been about eight hours since word of the trade broke, which is an eternity in Internet time. Here's a selection of the reactions the Internet has to this deal, categorized by the writer's feelings about the deal.</p>
<h4>Writer likes it for the <a href="https://www.purplerow.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Rockies</a>
</h4>
<p>...</p>
<p>...</p>
<p>Crickets. I guess nobody was thrilled with the Lyles/Barnes package.</p>
<h4>Writer likes it for the Astros</h4>
<p>The Astros SB Nation blog, the Crawfish Boxes, sure <a href="http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2013/12/3/5172150/fowlers-risk-is-worth-it">loves this trade</a>. Often when you get a big trade like this the opposition's fans will be upset that their team gave up XYZ, even if it's a completely ridiculous point of view. There really wasn't even any of that here.</p>
<p>TCB also has a <a href="http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2013/12/3/5172206/dexter-fowler-trade-reaction-fans-experts-weigh-in-on-houstons-move">great round-up of Twitter reactions</a> to the trade from baseball writers the world over. Spoiler alert: there's not a lot of love for the Rockies in there. This one is the most apt:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<p>The Astros don't even have to keep Fowler - most non-Rockies teams tend to like solidly average players in their 20s with upside.</p>
— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) <a href="https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/statuses/408001950089633792">December 3, 2013</a>
</blockquote>
<p>Steven Goldman for SB Nation thinks that the Rockies <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2013/12/3/5172746/dexter-fowler-trade-astros-rockies-impatience">erred in trading away their most patient hitter</a>.</p>
<p>David Schoenfield of ESPN's SweetSpot <a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/42721/a-wild-and-crazy-day-of-transactions">really doesn't get it </a>for the Rockies.</p>
<p>Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/astros-rockies-bet-on-different-kinds-of-potential/" style="background-color: #ffffff;">frames the trade as a bet that Lyles will really improve</a>. Given his description on Lyles, it doesn't seem that he feels Colorado will win the deal.</p>
<p>Sam Miller of Baseball Prospectus is <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22342">really not feeling good about Lyles or Barnes</a> as a return.</p>
<h4>Writer likes it for both sides</h4>
<p>Keith Law (?!?) of ESPN Insider was <a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/post?id=1642">very surprised by the trade</a>, but he doesn't hate the deal for the Rockies because he likes Lyles and the salary relief the Rockies got.</p>
<h4>Writer doesn't like it for anyone</h4>
<p>This article on the <a href="http://www.faketeams.com/2013/12/3/5172580/dexter-fowler-fantasy-baseball-trade-brandon-barnes-jordan-lyles-rockies-astros">fantasy baseball implications of the trade</a> doesn't like it for anybody in the deal...and the writer's really only looking at the winners/losers through the individual lens. He likes the trade for the Astros too.</p>
<p>This day is the worst.</p>
https://www.purplerow.com/2013/12/3/5173336/dexter-fowler-trade-reactions-from-around-the-internetJeff Aberle2013-12-03T20:45:18-07:002013-12-03T20:45:18-07:00Trade Reactions with Crawfish Boxes' Tim De Block
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<figcaption>Doug Pensinger</figcaption>
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<p>Tim De Block over at Crawfish Boxes had me on to discuss the Dexter Fowler trade a little bit ago. Here is our discussion.</p> <p>Tim DeBlock over at Crawfish Boxes had me on to discuss the Dexter Fowler trade a little bit ago. Here is our discussion.</p>
<p><a target="_blank" href="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/assets/3670317/PurpleRowInterview-FowlerTrade.mp3">Download here.</a></p>
<p>Tim gives a good breakdown on <span>Jordan Lyles</span> and <span>Brandon Barnes</span>, and dispels some of the theories that the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/">Astros</a> are going to flip <span>Dexter Fowler</span> to another team.</p>
https://www.purplerow.com/2013/12/3/5173170/reactions-to-trade-with-crawfish-boxes-tim-de-blockGreg Stanwood