Purple Row - Rockies season review 2014: Ranking the RockiesOf, by, and for Rockies fans. Every day.https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/32779/pr-logo-fv.jpg2014-12-01T09:07:23-07:00http://www.purplerow.com/rss/stream/67260782014-12-01T09:07:23-07:002014-12-01T09:07:23-07:00Ranking the Rockies, No. 1: Troy Tulowitzki
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<figcaption>Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Troy Tulowitzki had the most impressive year of his career at the plate in 2014, but how he got there suggests there's still room for improvement.</p> <p>Before we dive into Troy Tulowitzki's 2014 season and dissect how he might be able to improve on it going forward, I need to put a warning label on this post. So here we go ...</p>
<p><i>(Everything I'm about to write comes with the caveat that <span>Troy Tulowitzki's</span> future is uncertain, especially when it comes to injury. With the exception of 2012 where he clearly wasn't 100 percent, Tulo's demonstrated an amazing ability to come back from from the DL without his game on the field being heavily impacted. It's easy to just assume he'll do it again, but he's still coming off major hip flexor surgery, and until we see him back out there, there's no guarantees he'll be quite the same player. So far all the reports are good, but there's no way to tell for sure until the spring.)</i></p>
<h4>What happened</h4>
<p>When I had the privilege of writing and researching <a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2013/11/14/5100278/2013-colorado-rockies-player-reviews-troy-tulowitzki" target="_blank">Troy Tulowitzki's player review last season</a>, I came to a very counterintuitive conclusion: Troy Tulowitzki is a better hitter when he swings and misses more often. I encourage you to read that entire piece to better understand where I'll be coming from today, but the basic idea here is that Troy Tulowitzki is so good at making contact now that he can afford to swing for the moon a bit more than most players because he can add slugging there while still being a solid contact hitter. In short, this does a better job of maximizing his combined ability to hit for power and to hit for contact.</p>
<p>The 2014 season only strengthened this train of thought as the following chart shows. The place Tulo gains the most by swinging and missing more often is with less then two strikes. If he makes contact, he causes massive damage. If he doesn't, he gets another shot. Tulo did the "make less contact / do more damage" thing for the first half of 2013 before his rib injury and had a 1.048 OPS at that time, but then he seemed to go away from it when he came off the DL and the team was out of contention. As a result, that season is mixed. 2014, however, is the full blown best case scenario of what Tulo can do with less than two strikes when he trades a little of his exceptional contact skills for more slugging percentage.</p>
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<p><span>The table pretty much speaks for itself. Tulo has always been a good hitter with less than two strikes on him, but he took it to an entirely different level in 2014. The price he paid for this was the lowest contact percentage since his rookie season when he came in below the 50th percentile; but even at the 55th percentile, he's still making contact more often than most power hitters in the game. </span></p>
<p>Now that we know where Tulo stands on this topic, let's get some perspective. In the table below I've taken the 20 best hitters by wRC+ since the start of the 1989 season with at least 2,000 plate appearances (1989 is when baseball reference starts giving us enough data to crunch the math needed to figure out what players are doing with two strikes and less than two strikes on them). This table is NOT here to specifically compare Tulo's 2014 season to the career of any of these players (many of these players had better individual seasons at the plate than Tulo's 2014), but rather to see how the relationship of "less than two strikes hitting" and "two strikes hitting" works for the game's best players. The table is ordered by OPS of those who did the most damage in their career with less than two strikes.</p>
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<p>This is a fascinating table on many levels. There's some common threads between what these players do, but also quite a bit of individuality in the way they they arrive at greatness. In general however, the best hitters here (and we're really picking from the cream of the crop when we make that statement) tend to be better at hitting with two strikes on them. <span>Barry Bonds</span>, <span>Albert Pujols</span>, and <span>Manny Ramirez</span> specifically have the highest OPS numbers for their career with two strikes.</p>
<p>This is interesting when it comes to Tulo for two reasons. First, we just showed he's better off sacrificing some contact for slugging percentage with less than two strikes, and second, Tulo's actually already demonstrated the ability to be a truly elite two strike hitter back in the 2009/2010 time frame when he posted a .784 and .750 OPS in those spots as seen in the first table. At first, it seems like Tulo hasn't yet figured out how to balance his new found ability to hit for slugging with less than two strikes (sacrificing contact for power) with his older ability to hit well with two strikes as he displayed in 2009 and 2010, but I'm not sure that's the whole story.</p>
<p>While it's true that making mid-at-bat adjustments is tricky and is probably something Tulo could still do a better job at, something else is happening here as well. To investigate further, let's look at the next table where we take the 30 best power hitters in the game in 2014 (based on the average number of plate appearances they had between home runs [lower numbers are better here]) and arrange them by strikeout percentage. In what's becoming our theme, we're looking for players who demonstrate both the ability to hit for power and the ability to make contact.</p>
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<p>If the top part of that table looks familiar, it should. I ran this same exercise in the Tulo review from last season and <span>Jose Bautista</span>, <span>Edwin Encarnacion</span>, Troy Tulowitzki, and <span>David Ortiz</span> all appeared in the top seven of that list. As long as they hit enough home runs to qualify for the table, the same general names will appear at the top of the list with freakishly high wRC+ scores to boot. These are the types of hitters that tend to age really, really well.</p>
<p>What's significant about this table as it relates Tulo is that he's still not striking out very much in relation to other power hitters even with the contact he's sacrificed. This is what leads me to believe that something else is impairing his ability to hit at a truly elite level with two strikes. The following table, which looks at the specifics of the strikeouts for the five best power + contact hitters in 2014, expands upon this idea.</p>
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<p>A couple of things should jump out here. First, that's why Detroit just paid <span>Victor Martinez</span> so much money going into his age 36 season. The other thing that's amazing here though is the breakdown of Tulo's strikeouts. An astounding 47 percent of them are looking. No other hitter who hits for elite power and doesn't strike out much wastes as many at bats striking out looking as Tulo, and it's not even close. The average breakdown of strikeouts swinging vs. strikeouts looking across baseball is 75 percent to 25 percent. In fact, Tulo's 2014 strikeout looking rate of 47 percent was the second highest in all of baseball among players with at least 300 plate appearances. (<span>Casey McGehee</span> came in with the highest figure)</p>
<p>This means that Tulo's ability to hit with two strikes is not being capped by the lower contact rate he's making in general to increase the damage he does with less than two strikes, but instead it's being capped by his pitch recognition skills. As good as 2014 was for Tulo at the plate, a 1.337 OPS with less than two strikes and a strikeout swinging rate of just 8.1 percent could theoretically yield even better production.</p>
<p>So now the question becomes: Where is Tulo struggling to recognize pitches? Is this just a problem in general for him, or does he have issues in a certain part of the zone? To find out more information on this, I went back and watched every one of his 57 strikeouts this season (30 swinging, 27 looking) and plotted them on the images below <b>from the perspective of the pitcher</b>. Since strikeouts looking seem to be the issue here, let's look at that image first (the different colors mean nothing - they just make it easier to distinguish the dots when they're all clumped together).</p>
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<p>Tulo's strikeouts looking pretty much fall into three categories.</p>
<p>1) Four in the middle of the plate. All of these were sharply breaking off speed pitches that caught Tulo off guard. All were thrown in about a three week stretch and they stopped being thrown after Tulo adjusted and put a couple of these in the left field seats.</p>
<p>2) 17 on or just off the lower outside corner of the plate. This is the group that's key.</p>
<p>3) Six that fall into an "other" category (five on the inside half of the plate and one high on the outside part of the plate). There's nothing to worry about here as at least three and probably four or five of them were terrible calls. This is also where one of Tulo's 2014 ejections came from as well as two more near-ejections.</p>
<p>The group to focus on here though is the second one. While two of the calls in this department were also terrible, Tulo does have a bit of a problem letting pitches go by that just catch this corner of the plate. Pitchers know this, have made the adjustment from what he was doing with two strikes in 2009 / 2010, and have used it as just about the only escape hatch they have when it comes to getting Tulo out.</p>
<p>During Tulo's at bats next season, take note of where opponents go when they get two strikes on him. It's almost always to this area of the plate unless they make a mistake or really try to expand the zone somewhere else.</p>
<p>Okay, now just for comparison's sake, let's look at the location of the 30 pitches Tulo struck out swinging on in 2014.</p>
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<p>Here we have a much larger variety of pitches, but when you combine this image with the data we already have it's still an important one. While there's pitches scattered all over the strike zone, particularly the edge of the strike zone, there's one place where Tulo clearly tends to chase pitches out of the strike zone the most. Yep, it's down and away again. Every once in a while he'll get anxious and chase a pitch up with two strikes, and every once in a while he'll be fooled swinging at a pitch off the lower / inside part of the plate, but if a pitcher is going to get Troy Tulowitzki to swing and miss at something out of the zone with two strikes, it's probably going to be a pitch down and away.</p>
<p>In turn, this is also probably why we see Tulo take so many pitches that just clip the lower outside corner of the plate. He doesn't want to swing and miss at a pitch in that area that falls out of the zone.</p>
<h4>2014 Grade: A-</h4>
<p>Even though he only played in 91 games, what he did this season and what he's toiling with in his career picture is so over the top incredible he deserves something in the "A" range. I'll slap a minus on there for the missed time, but I can't go any lower than that for a guy who outproduced everyone on the team with such a limited amount of playing time.</p>
<h4>What to expect in 2015</h4>
<p>Honestly, I don't know. The first hurdle to clear is making sure he comes back healthy and is somewhere close to 100 percent of his ability. Hip injuries can be nasty, and if this one robs Tulo of some of his ability, everything discussed here goes out the window.</p>
<p>However, if Tulo does come back 100 percent, then we'll have to watch closely for any improvements he can make in terms of pitch recognition (a skill that often peaks last and tends to stay with players through their late 30's). It's not something that's likely to happen at this point, but it's within the realm of possibility, and it's worth keeping an eye on because the potential payoff is enormous - as in through-the-stratosphere enormous.</p>
<p>The adjustments we've witnessed Troy Tulowitzki make at the plate over the last few seasons have been nothing short of amazing, but if he ever gets a better handle on the lower outside portion of the strike zone, then you're going to see something truly remarkable.</p>
https://www.purplerow.com/2014/12/1/7313019/troy-tulowitzki-colorado-rockies-2014-seasonMatthew Gross2014-11-27T13:35:37-07:002014-11-27T13:35:37-07:00Ranking the Rockies, No. 2: Nolan Arenado
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<figcaption>Now that is what a baseball player looks like. | Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Nolan Arenado is good. Very good. Depending on your feelings on Troy Tulowitzki, he may be the single most important player to the future of the Colorado Rockies.</p> <p>In 2014, <span>Nolan Arenado</span> separated himself as the second most indispensable player on the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.purplerow.com/">Colorado Rockies</a> roster.</p>
<div>Rockies fans didn't have many things to be thankful for last season, but without question or debate, watching Nolan Arenado play baseball was absolutely one of them. We can say with pride and pleasure that we get to watch the best defensive third-baseman in baseball every single day.</div>
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<p>Nolan Arenado is good. Very good. Depending on your feelings on <span>Troy Tulowitzki</span>, he may be the single most important player to the future of the Rockies. He won his second consecutive Gold Glove in 2014, making him perfect in his career at winning the award while also showing glimpses of the excellent offense he was known for in the minors.</p>
<p>The only dark-spot on Arenado's phenomenal sophomore season was the 51 games he missed because he slid head-first and broke his hand. Sliding head-first should be forever banned, like cannonballs from a Dylan song. When he was on the field, he was about as effective as anyone could expect a 23-year old third baseman to be.</p>
<h4>What happened</h4>
<p>At the plate, Arenado put up a solid slash-line of .287/.328/.500 which was good for a 113 wRC+ or roughly 13 percent better than league average. His remarkably low 12.4 percent strikeout rate is a good sign that he can continue or even improve upon these results and is also a testament to how frustrating he can be for opposing pitchers.</p>
<p>Of course, it would be nice to see that 5.4 walk percentage increase and as Nolan sees more and more MLB level pitching, I suspect it will. Perhaps the most promising sign, however, was the power he displayed in hitting 18 home runs in 111 games and slugging .500 on the season.</p>
<p>The shining moment for his offense came in <a target="_blank" href="http://www.purplerow.com/2014/5/10/5702914/saturday-rockpile-hit-streak-snapped-is-biggest-news">May when he recorded a hit in a team-record 28 consecutive games</a>.</p>
<p>It can be easy to forget considering the way the season unfolded by year's end, but let us not minimize that the Rockies were 27-23 when it was announced that Arenado would be missing a significant amount of time. In my opinion, that was the single most impactful incident of the season, and it completely derailed any hope of contention that the Rockies may have had.</p>
<p>Arenado missed all of June and returned a bit rusty, but by the end of the season appeared to be back to the player we though he was earlier in the year.</p>
<p>And then there is his defense.</p>
<p>I don't know what to say that hasn't already been said about Arenado's defense. If you haven't seen Nolan Arenado play defense at third base, then you haven't seen Shakespeare the way it's meant to be done. Yes, he's so good, it's worth stealing that line from Aaron Sorkin.</p>
<p>If the MLB followed the NBA's lead and had ... y'know ... a 21st century policy when it comes to Youtube, this is the part where I would just post a ten minute long highlight package created by some sophomore visual arts student, showing Arenado doing borderline superhuman things set to Tupac music.</p>
<p>Instead, we'll have to settle for this:</p>
<p><iframe frameborder="0" height="224" width="400" src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=36889811&topic_id=73497276&width=400&height=224&property=mlb">Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe></p>
<h4>2014 grade: A-</h4>
<p>Walk occasionally and don't get hurt next season at this turns into an A+ real quick and easy.</p>
<h4>What to expect in 2015</h4>
<p>I've got him penciled into the two-hole spot in the lineup and since his injury was a freak thing and not a strain, I am praying to the Lords of Kobol that he stays healthy for the full year. If health is not a concern, he may have the inside track on the next eight Gold Gloves at third base and the Rockies should sign him to a contract extension as soon as humanly possible.</p>
<p>If Troy Tulowitzki ever is traded, Nolan Arenado becomes <i>the guy</i> for the Colorado Rockies. The brief amount of time I spent around him and the team also leads me to believe that Arenado is the leader of this team's future even if Tulo remains. At this time, there is no player that could leave the team that would upset me more than if the Rockies lost Nolan Arenado. He's too young, too good, and too smart to let get away.</p>
<p>Things get complicated. <a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2014/9/2/6080493/dan-odowd-interview-rockies-gm-prospects" target="_blank">As Dan O'Dowd reminded us, </a>when agents (especially Scott Boras) get involved, and the<a href="http://seattletimes.com/html/mariners/2025094098_mariners25xml.html" target="_blank"> 7-year $100 million contract that Kyle Seager just signed with Seattle </a>suggests that Arenado may be worth a fortune. Even if <span>Carlos Gonzalez</span> returns to his old self next year, Arenado will remain the second most important player on the team and hopefully he will be in a Rockies uniform for a long, long time.</p>
https://www.purplerow.com/2014/11/27/7300067/2014-rockies-season-review-nolan-arenado-becomes-second-most-valuable-player-colorado-gold-gloveDrew Creasman2014-11-25T09:49:18-07:002014-11-25T09:49:18-07:00Ranking the Rockies, No. 3: Corey Dickerson
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<figcaption>Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Despite an early season demotion, Corey Dickerson ended up being the third most valuable Rockie in 2014</p> <p><span>Corey Dickerson</span> can just flat out hit. I apologize if that sounds like a Husonesque statement, an example of old school, squinty-eyed, essentially meaningless scout-speak. But Dickerson is an old school type player. He doesn't care for the modern hitting approach of taking pitches and working counts; he steps into the box with the aggressiveness of a little leaguer on a hot streak. Dickerson's hot zone isn't knees to letters, it's shoe-laces to eyeballs, and occasionally he'll expand it still further. In 2014, that approach worked like gangbusters.</p>
<p>It's almost hard to remember that Dickerson could barely crack the roster at the start of the season. He broke camp with the team and participated in the opening series in Miami; and then was shipped to Triple-A. Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, <span>Michael Cuddyer</span>, <span>Brandon Barnes</span>, and <span>Drew Stubbs</span> were all ahead of him on the depth chart. Despite not having anything to prove in the minors--he would consistently put up an OPS around .950--he couldn't keep his spot on the big club. But when injuries struck down Cargo and Cuddyer, Dickerson got his chance for everyday ABs, and he did not disappoint.</p>
<h3>What happened</h3>
<p>Base hits. Lots and lots of base hits. Despite receiving only 478 plate appearances, Dickerson led the team in home runs with 24, and they usually weren't cheapies. For instance:</p>
<p><iframe width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=35617907&topic_id=6479266&width=400&height=224&property=mlb">Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe></p>
<p>Dickerson's .312/.364/.567 line was obviously fantastic, and only his lack of plate appearances kept him out of the batting title hunt. His 7.7 BB% is actually pretty respectable for a guy with reputation for wild swings (compare with lead off hitter <span>Charlie Blackmon's</span> 4.8%). His .356 BABIP was higher than average, but for a guy who sprays line drives all over the yard, you can definitely make the argument that he earned those hits that dropped in.</p>
<p align="center"><i>By the numbers</i></p>
<p align="center"><i>Corey Dickerson, 2014</i></p>
<p> </p>
<table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" width="128">
<colgroup> <col width="64" span="2" style="width: 48pt;"> </colgroup>
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<td width="64" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 48pt;">PA</td>
<td align="right" width="64" style="width: 48pt;">478</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">BA</td>
<td align="right">0.312</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">OBP</td>
<td align="right">0.364</td>
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<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">SLG</td>
<td align="right">0.567</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">HR</td>
<td align="right">24</td>
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<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">BABIP</td>
<td align="right">0.356</td>
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<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">OPS</td>
<td align="right">0.931</td>
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<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">OPS+</td>
<td align="right">142</td>
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<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">SB</td>
<td align="right">8</td>
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<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">WAR</td>
<td align="right">3.4</td>
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</tbody>
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<p> </p>
<p>Dickerson wasn't immune to the Coors Field effect (home OPS: 1.098. Road OPS: .735) and hit righties much better than lefties (against RHP: .985. Against LHP: .724). But neither of those splits are fatal; a .700+ road OPS was quiet competence when the rest of the team was totally hapless.</p>
<p>Of course there's more to baseball than pure hitting. By both the eye test and advanced fielding numbers Dickerson was at best serviceable in the outfield; and possibly a major liability. Defensive Runs Saved rated him as being two runs below average, which is perfectly acceptable. Fangraphs, though, had him at a -10 fielder, or costing the team an entire win just with bad defense. Dickerson has good speed, but sometimes he would look like Wile E. Coyote when running, with his legs blurred out in motion and tearing up strips of sod without actually getting anywhere. And the less said about his arm the better; toward the end of the season opponents were testing him constantly.</p>
<p>Also, he did this once. Work better legs!</p>
<p><iframe width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=33960507&topic_id=75205754&width=400&height=224&property=mlb">Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe></p>
<h3>2014 grade: A-</h3>
<p>What more can you expect from the guy? It's not often you go from initially getting squeezed off the roster to being perhaps the most exciting player on the team. Dickerson flashed an elite hit tool in 2014, and while defensive limitations and the occasional bone-headed play keep his season from being a straight A, he proved to be perhaps the team's best surprise in a bad season.</p>
<h3>What to expect in 2015</h3>
<p>Dickerson will get a full slate of at bats in 2015 to show what he can really do. Corey has never failed to tear the cover off the ball at any stop in his career. Somehow he has always flown under the prospect radar, but he has hit himself right into the starting left field spot. Entering his age 25/26 season I fully expect big things. I think it's quite possible Dickerson belts 25 homers as part of a .300/.360/.550 season, with a trip to the All Star game. The Alabamian with a country twang as smooth as iced tea is going do some scary things to baseballs in 2015.</p>
https://www.purplerow.com/2014/11/25/7277385/corey-dickerson-colorado-rockies-2014-seasonRockiesFan0002014-11-24T18:32:36-07:002014-11-24T18:32:36-07:00Ranking the Rockies, No. 4: Justin Morneau
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<figcaption>Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Justin Morneau had his best season in years despite widespread belief that he could never put up these kinds of numbers again. He won the batting title, but his defense may be his biggest contribution on the field.</p> <p>Moments after the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.purplerow.com/">Colorado Rockies</a> signed <span>Justin Morneau</span> -- still in the wake of the Dexter Fowler trade -- I wrote as a part of a "best case scenario":</p>
<blockquote>
<p>"I'm putting the legitimate over/under at 1.5 fWAR for Justin Morneau in 2014. I'll take the over and wouldn't call anyone foolish for taking the under."</p>
</blockquote>
<p>He posted an fWAR of 2.5. Turns out I was underselling ... on Justin Morneau at least.</p>
<h4>What happened</h4>
<p>I went on in that article to say:</p>
<blockquote>
<p id="paragraph32">"I think the safest bet to address [<span>Dexter Fowler's</span> lost on base ability] is the newly acquired Justin Morneau.</p>
<p id="paragraph33">If you average his last two good seasons (2009 and 2010) and his last two seasons in general, Morneau's BB% comes to 10.775 and his OBP to .363 ... Over their whole careers, Fowler strikes out at a 22.3 percent clip, while Morneau sits at a cool 15.6 percent. "</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Morneau added an OBP of .364 to his batting-title-winning .319 average and struck out only 10.9 percent of the time -- a career best mark by four percentage points in a pretty illustrious contact-making career. I'm not sure which part of the altitude or big outfield is responsible for him making so much contact. I'll have to check on that.</p>
<p>That all amounted to a 123 wRC+ which was a lot better than those who were expecting the same injury-riddled Justin Morneau that the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.bucsdugout.com/">Pirates</a> decided was expendable.</p>
<p>His two biggest contributions, though, were his ability to hit on the road and his defense. Somehow, as a Colorado Rockie, Justin Morneau managed to post a higher wRC+ number on the road (133) than at home (111) and also <a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2014/10/23/7049401/nl-gold-glove-finalists-nolan-arenado-justin-morneau-dj-lemahieu" target="_blank">earned a nomination for the 2014 Gold Glove at first base.</a></p>
<p>These are the two reasons why I disagree with our captain <a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2014/11/21/7259235/rockies-trade-rumors-justin-morneau-ike-davis" target="_blank">Bryan Kilpatrick when he says the Rockies should trade Morneau.</a> I think road hitting and infield defense are two areas where the Rockies must be elite in order to succeed, though I'd bet Bryan's position also involves believing less in the Rockies chances for contention next season than I do which is another can of cookies.</p>
<h4>2014 grade: A+</h4>
<p>He won the batting title, was highlighted as one of the three best defensive first baseman in the NL, and adds a much needed element of leadership to the clubhouse especially now with <span>Michael Cuddyer</span> gone. The only way he could have had a better season is if he won the Gold Glove. You show me a writer who predicted Morneau would have this kind of year and I'll downgrade him to an "A."</p>
<p>I was on the high end of the spectrum and he far exceeded my expectations.</p>
<h4>What to expect in 2015</h4>
<p>Hopefully more of the same. I'd like to see Morneau back and in his same role and producing near the same level. I would expect some regression as is natural but his profile is a perfect fit for this team. His ability to hit the ball to all fields and not strike out make him more reliable and consistent than even Carlos Gonzales or <span>Troy Tulowitzki</span>.</p>
<p>He avoids slumps, hits on the road -- which the Rockies need the way people marooned on a desert island need water -- and is a key final piece to the "pitch-to-ground-ball-contact-and-into-the-best-infield-defense-in-baseball" strategy.</p>
<p>My only concern heading into this season is that he would never be this kind of player again due to his injury and he proved that the injury is no longer a concern. Next year will be his age 34 season which makes me think he's got at least two more years of this kind of production before age becomes a major factor as long as he is relatively healthy.</p>
<p>If that's the case, I would very much like him in purple, please.</p>
https://www.purplerow.com/2014/11/24/7278359/2014-rockies-season-review-justin-morneau-earns-accolades-on-offense-defense-coloradoDrew Creasman2014-11-23T11:07:08-07:002014-11-23T11:07:08-07:00Ranking the Rockies, No. 5: Drew Stubbs
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<figcaption>Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The only thing Drew Stubbs didn't do well in 2014 was hit on the road. But is he getting too expensive for a guy whose offense is essentially useless in half his games?</p> <p>There was a lot of hand-wringing around these parts when the news first broke that the <a href="https://www.purplerow.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Colorado Rockies</a> had signed <span>Drew Stubbs</span>. The issue then was much the same as it is now. Most Rockies fans, I think, acknowledge the benefits that Stubbs brings as well as his shortcomings, so the million dollar question -- well really the roughly $5.7M question -- becomes; is he worth the money the Rockies will need to pay him to keep him?</p>
<p>I wasn't a business major (you're <i>kidding) </i>but I know baseball and I think Stubbs has a valuable place on this roster. I could be talked into letting him go under the right circumstances, but my position is that they don't <i>need</i> to part from him and I think he can be productive for this team moving forward. But wait, I'm getting ahead of myself.</p>
<h4>What happened</h4>
<p>Drew Stubbs accumulated a 2.5 fWAR in 2014, earning him this lofty spot on this list. When it all shook out, Stubbs was above average both in the field and in the batters box, posting a 113 wRC+. He smashed 15 home runs, stole 20 bases, and served as both an excellent platoon option and one of the best center fielders the Rockies have ever had.</p>
<p>But he struck out way too much, to the tune of 32.1 percent, and could disappear for long stretches on the road which one could argue is the Rockies team-wide Kryptonite and should be addressed.</p>
<p>As our own RhodeIslandRoxFan put it:</p>
<blockquote>
<p id="paragraph4">The other predicament the Rockies have with Stubbs is despite his shortcomings at the plate when it comes to strikeouts, they would be in deep trouble without him in center field as their realistic depth there would essentially be <span>Charlie Blackmon</span> with a touch of <span>Brandon Barnes</span> (assuming <span>Carlos Gonzalez</span> can't play center field now after all his knee issues).</p>
<p>Stubbs is not an ideal option to have in center field, but he's also far from the worst guy out there. A mixture of him and Charlie Blackmon is about as good as it's going to get for this club right now.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>He is still the fastest guy on the team, the best defensive center fielder they have, and also has enough pop to be used as a pinch hitter (as well as a pinch runner) off the bench late in games.</p>
<p>Much of Stubbs' offensive production could be chalked up to playing half his games at Coors Field, which I think is overblown, but as RIRF points out here, <a target="_blank" href="http://www.purplerow.com/2014/8/5/5971265/tuesday-rockpile-the-somewhat-unsustainable-revitalization-of-drew">Stubbs is just a perfect fit for the park.</a> There are plenty of players who get to play half their games at Coors who don't put up 113 wRC+ over the course of the season. It isn't magic.</p>
<h4>2014 grade: B+</h4>
<p>For the most part, Stubbs did his job. If he had hit at all on the road he could have been the team's MVP but he didn't and that is a huge part of the game and one that haunts the Rockies consistently. But you would be hard pressed to find too many people whose expectations he did not exceed in 2014.</p>
<h4>What to expect in 2015</h4>
<p>Because the Rockies aren't interested in rebuilding, tanking, or punting on the present for the promises of the future, I fully expect Drew Stubbs to be back on the team next season. Unless they can find another outfielder with decent speed and pop and for less money, he absolutely should be.</p>
<p>Also, with a healthier and or deeper team, Stubbs could be used more in the situations best suited for his talents, so unless they plan on using the relatively small amount of money they could save by moving him on a super exciting pitcher signing (I'm not holding my breath) then Drew Stubbs should be a Rockie with a vital role in 2015.</p>
https://www.purplerow.com/2014/11/23/7271371/2014-rockies-season-review-drew-stubbs-surprises-many-with-excellentDrew Creasman2014-11-21T21:58:12-07:002014-11-21T21:58:12-07:00Ranking the Rockies, No. 6: Jorge De La Rosa
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<figcaption>Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In a starting rotation projected by many to be among the finest the Rockies had ever assembled, only Jorge De La Rosa answered the bell again and again for the Rockies in 2014.</p> <p>Jorge De La Rosa entered 2014 having just had his best year in the majors, earning 4.3 rWAR in 167 2/3 innings of 3.49 ERA pitching. The 33 year-old lefty was also in the final year of his four year, $42 million contract - a contract that had seen De La Rosa's season abbreviated by injury in its first two seasons. In other words, there was a lot on the line for De La Rosa personally and professionally entering the year as Colorado's top pitcher (particularly since <span>Jhoulys Chacin</span> was injured).</p>
<p>Accompanied by holdovers Chacin, <span>Tyler Chatwood</span>, and <span>Juan Nicasio</span> as well as trade acquisition <span>Brett Anderson</span>, De La Rosa was supposed to head one of the best starting rotations in <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.purplerow.com/">Rockies</a> history. Instead, he was the lone man from that projected rotation left standing at the end of the year. In fact, for much of the season De La Rosa was the only starter in the rotation from that group.</p>
<h4><span>What happened</span></h4>
<p>The season began with a <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIA/MIA201403310.shtml">disastrous Opening Night performance</a> in which De La Rosa and <span>Wilin Rosario</span> <a href="http://www.purplerow.com/2014/4/1/5570486/jorge-de-la-rosa-wilin-rosario-argument-rockies">argued vociferously </a>en route to the pitcher unraveling in the 5th inning. That start was followed by two more in which the lefty did not make it out of the 5th inning - at which point his ERA was an unseemly 9.69.</p>
<p>Fortunately, a trip to Petco Park in San Diego began a string of eight starts in which De La Rosa lowered his ERA each time, recording a quality start in six of them. Of course, De La Rosa then alternated between extreme ineffectiveness - including a 7.11 ERA in 31 June innings in which hitters had a .916 OPS against him - and competence - including a 1.93 ERA May and a 2.30 ERA July. The net effect was a year in which De La Rosa was somewhat less effective than he'd been in 2013 - despite a lower than average .263 BABIP.</p>
<p>One thing JDLR did this year is give the Rockies innings - over his last 17 starts, he went at least six frames in 15 of them - leading Colorado in innings pitched by 42 innings over Franklin Morales. Despite the pleas of many to trade him at the deadline when it was clear the Rockies were going nowhere, Colorado instead inked him to a two year, $25 million contract.</p>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>By the numbers<br></i><i>Jorge De La Rosa, 2014</i>
</div>
<table border="0" align="center">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>IP</td>
<td>184 1/3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>ERA</td>
<td>4.10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>FIP</td>
<td>4.34</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>K/9</td>
<td>6.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>BB/9</td>
<td>3.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>GB%</td>
<td>51.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>BABIP</td>
<td>..263</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>rWAR</td>
<td>2.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<p>As he did in 2013, De La Rosa really excelled against left-handed hitters. Namely, he was death against them - holding lefties to a paltry .196/.260/.272 batting line, or an excellent 53 sOPS+ allowed. JDLR also did well to generate bunches of ground balls - in fact, his 51.6% ground ball percentage was 16th among qualified pitchers in MLB this year. De La Rosa developed a cutter in 2014 that he threw 16% of the time, but he mostly relied on his four-seamer and splitter/changeup - the latter of which was easily his most effective pitch, a pitch that rated 4th most effective in MLB among pitches of that type.</p>
<p>Continuing a split that defies logic (and also makes him extremely valuable to the Rockies), De La Rosa also was much more effective at Coors Field (10-2 with a 3.08 ERA in 15 home starts, .664 OPS against) than he was on the road (4-9, 5.09 ERA, .746 OPS against). That brings his career Coors Field line to 45-14 with a 3.98 ERA over 445 innings.</p>
<p>One final fun fact: JDLR allowed just a .407 OPS to hitters in the six hole in 82 plate appearances - easily the lowest outside of the pitcher's spot in the lineup.</p>
<h4>2014 Grade: B+</h4>
<p>As the other pitchers in the projected Opening Day rotation went down with injuries - and then <i>their</i> replacements were injured - De La Rosa took the ball every fifth day and gave the Rockies 184 1/3 league average innings. There's considerable value in that, which is why JDLR receives the grade he does - but if we're being honest, De La Rosa just wasn't as effective in 2014 as he'd been previously.</p>
<h4><span>What to expect in 2015</span></h4>
<p>In Jorge De La Rosa, the Rockies have a pitcher who not only is not intimidated by having Coors Field as his home park, he excels there to a historic degree. He's a known commodity that will hopefully serve as a consistently solid starter over the next two years, in which there is considerable uncertainty. With the contract he signed, De La Rosa will be making the most money he's ever made in a year in his age 34 and 35 seasons. Hopefully, Colorado will have a healthy and effective rotation around De La Rosa in those seasons.</p>
https://www.purplerow.com/2014/11/21/7259107/jorge-de-la-rosa-colorado-rockies-2014-seasonJeff Aberle2014-11-20T07:24:53-07:002014-11-20T07:24:53-07:00Ranking the Rockies, No. 7: Charlie Blackmon
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<figcaption>Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Blackmon is not the MVP candidate that he was during the first month and a half of 2014, but he's still an everyday player provided he can retain decent batted-ball luck.</p> <p>I wanted <span>Corey Dickerson</span>, not <span>Charlie Blackmon</span>, to be one of the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.purplerow.com/">Rockies</a>' three starting outfielders entering 2014, but I knew it wasn't realistic; Carlos Gonzalez wasn't going to play center field and Dickerson is, well, not very good there. Because of that, I knew Blackmon would be the Rockies' guy because of his great finish to 2013, his deceptively good speed and his above-average defensive skills.</p>
<p>What I didn't know was that we'd have an All-Star and, at least for the first month and a half of the season, a legitimate MVP candidate manning center for Colorado.</p>
<p>Of course, nothing stays gold, particularly when talking about someone who was always good but certainly never great during his ascent to the big leagues. Blackmon crashed -- and crashed hard -- but that doesn't mean all is lost for the 2008 second-round draft pick.</p>
<h4>What happened</h4>
<p>Blackmon's beard contained super powers from Opening Day until roughly mid-May. The 28-year-old Georgia Tech alum picked up three hits in the Rockies' opening series in Miami before having a full-on a breakout party in the team's home opener on April 5. Blackmon went 6-for-6 with three doubles, a home run and five RBI in a 12-2 rout over the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a>, and he never really stopped hitting during Colorado's successful first month of 2014. He finished the month with a .374/.418/.616 line, and for a good while, led the National League in just about every category, including WAR.</p>
<p>His teammate, <span>Troy Tulowitzki</span>, eventually overcame him in most of those departments, but Blackmon was still wildly successful during the first half of May, posting a .913 OPS and swatting four homers in 10 games. However, upon the Rockies' trip to Kansas City in the middle of that month, Blackmon's magic began to wear off. Perhaps not coincidentally, so did that of his team.</p>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>By the numbers<br></i><i><i>Charlie Blackmon, 2014</i></i>
</div>
<table align="center" border="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>AVG</td>
<td>.288</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>OBP</td>
<td>.335</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SLG</td>
<td>.440</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>OPS+</td>
<td>104</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>HR</td>
<td>19</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>BB</td>
<td>31</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SO</td>
<td>96</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Rdrs*</td>
<td>1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>rWAR</td>
<td>2.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p style="text-align: center;"><i>* -- Defensive runs saved above average (provided by Baseball Info Solutions)</i></p>
<p>From May 13 through the end of the season, Blackmon hit an uninspiring .268/.319/.384 with 24 walks and 82 strikeouts. He did have 30 extra-base hits and 20 steals during that stretch, but his woeful on-base percentage out of the leadoff spot in that 4½-month span shouldn't be discounted when talking about the things that resulted in the Rockies' downward spiral out of contention and into MLB's cellar.</p>
<p>Blackmon did earn a spot on the NL All-Star team thanks to his Herculean effort in April and May, but his appearance in the game was rather fitting; after the initial hoopla of being selected to play on the same field as all of the league's best players, Blackmon went 0-for-2 with a strikeout and ended the game with a weak grounder to second.</p>
<h4>2014 Grade: B-</h4>
<p>Blackmon was a superb player early in the season but wound up as an out machine at a spot in the lineup where that tends to be an extremely bad trait. The hot start was responsible for him finishing as a slightly above-average hitter in terms of OPS+, a number that sadly was worse for Blackmon in 2014 than it was the year prior. Still, getting 19 home runs and 28 steals out of a center fielder who does not kill you defensively can hardly be considered a negative thing.</p>
<p>The best thing that Blackmon did in his first full big league season was make Rockies fans forget about the <span>Dexter Fowler</span> trade. That wasn't easy to do, and while I'd rather have Fowler's on-base skills in the lead-off spot, Blackmon proved to be the better player overall in 2014, largely due to his ability to stay on the field and not be a defensive liability while doing so.</p>
<h4>What to expect in 2015</h4>
<p>It's hard to picture <span>Drew Stubbs</span> as a full-time player, so Charlie Blackmon is going to be the Opening Day starter in center field next season, regardless of <span>Carlos Gonzalez's</span> status. And, as I stated above, that's a good thing. Blackmon might not be an ideal leadoff hitter with his sub-5.0 percent walk rate, but he belongs in the Rockies' everyday lineup nonetheless.</p>
<p>It's also worth noting that Blackmon might benefit from better batted ball luck over the course of a full season. That sounds strange to say given his otherworldly April and May, but he finished with a BABIP of just .315 in 2014. The league average for that category was .300, but Rockies players generally eclipse that mark by 25 to 30 points due to the gigantic outfield at Coors Field.</p>
<p>Of course, there's also the possibility that pitchers have adjusted to Blackmon, and that he won't be able to overcome his inability to find his way on base by means other than a hit. In that case, Colorado better hope that Stubbs, with increased exposure, can still hit like he did in 2014.</p>
https://www.purplerow.com/2014/11/20/7253569/charlie-blackmon-colorado-rockies-2014-seasonBryan Kilpatrick2014-11-19T17:29:05-07:002014-11-19T17:29:05-07:00Ranking the Rockies, No. 8: Tyler Matzek
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<figcaption>Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After a roller coaster ride through the minors, Matzek provided stability for a Rockies starting rotation that was constantly in flux in 2014.</p> <p>The <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.purplerow.com/">Rockies</a> had high hopes for <span>Tyler Matzek</span> when they made him the 11th overall pick of the 2009 draft, giving the southpaw from Capistrano Valley (Calif.) High School a then-franchise record $3.9 million signing bonus.</p>
<p>Matzek impressed in his pro debut with Asheville in 2010, posting a 2.92 ERA in 89 1/3 innings despite walking 6.2 batters per nine innings. However, 2011 was a disaster for Matzek, as he walked 96 batters in 97 innings over two levels of A-ball and at one point was actually sent home to work with his personal pitching coach. Matzek repeated Modesto in 2012 with much better results and got back on track.</p>
<p>After a strong start to 2014 in Colorado Springs and injuries to <span>Jordan Lyles</span> and <span>Eddie Butler</span>, the 23-year-old Matzek made his big league debut on June 11, five years after he was drafted.</p>
<p>Nobody really knew what to expect from Matzek in the majors, looking at a minor league career that saw him walk six batters per nine innings over 537 2/3 innings, but his debut against the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.talkingchop.com/">Braves</a> at Coors Field saw him walk absolutely no one and allow just two runs on five hits in seven innings with seven strikeouts, giving a good start to what was perhaps the best season of his professional career.</p>
<h4>What happened</h4>
<p>Matzek made 19 starts (and one relief appearance) for the Rockies in 2014, pitching 117 2/3 innings with the Rockies with a 4.05 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. He allowed 120 hits, but walked just 44 while striking out 91. His 3.4 BB/9 in the majors was better than any of his minor league seasons and his 7.0 K/9 number led Rockies starters in 2014.</p>
<p>As with any rookie pitcher, a few of Matzek's starts were clunkers. He gave up eight runs on 10 hits in four innings at Detroit on August 2, for example. However, 11 of Matzek's 19 starts qualified as quality starts and he allowed two or fewer runs 10 times. Matzek's strongest stretch came at the end of the season, as he had a 1.55 ERA over 40 2/3 innings in his final six starts with 14 walks and 38 strikeouts. He also posted a 3.61 ERA in eight starts at Coors Field as opposed to a 4.41 mark in 11 starts away from home.</p>
<p>The highlight of Matzek's season came on September 5 at Coors Field, as he allowed just three hits and a walk, striking out six en route to a a complete game shutout of the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.gaslampball.com/">Padres</a>. The shutout was the first for the Rockies since <span>Ubaldo Jimenez</span> shut out the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a> in Los Angeles on June 1, 2011.</p>
<p>Matzek's peripherals in 2014 indicate that sustained success is certainly possible for the Rockies lefty. His FIP was a tidy 3.78 to go with a 3.92 xFIP. He had a 49.7 ground ball percentage and 8.9% HR/FB rate to go with a .312 BABIP against him and a strand rate of 73.8%. His ERA+ of 105 was also solid and, in fact, better than that of the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.amazinavenue.com/">Mets</a>' Zack Wheeler, who was taken out of high school five picks ahead of Matzek in the 2009 draft. He was also good for 2.0 fWAR and 1.9 rWAR.</p>
<h4>2014 Grade: A</h4>
<p>As a 23-year-old rookie, Matzek had the best ERA of any Rockies starter in 2014. He posted a career-low walk rate and was an above-average pitcher when adjusting for league and park. It's really a shame he was overlooked in Rookie of the Year voting. This season was a success for Matzek by any measure, a solid A.</p>
<h4>What to expect in 2015</h4>
<p>I'm going to say something a lot of Rockies fans hoped to one day hear about him when he was drafted in 2009: Expect Tyler Matzek to be a cornerstone of the Rockies' rotation in 2015 along with fellow lefty Jorge De La Rosa. He was second among Rockies pitchers in WAR in 2014 and with a full season in 2015 could very well lead the pitching staff in that stat.</p>
<p>It all seems to have come together for Matzek, as he has finally taken the stuff that made him a first-round pick and combined it with a mentality of attacking the strike zone. Look for him to build on his 2014 success, especially at the end of the season, and turn in an even stronger season next year.</p>
https://www.purplerow.com/2014/11/19/7250843/tyler-matzek-colorado-rockies-2014-seasonJordan Freemyer